FSU Basketball Starts ACC Tournament Against Cal With Bubble Implications

The postseason has officially started for Florida State, and they have a much better chance at making another tournament than anyone would've thought. FSU has been one of the best teams in the country since January 20th, going 10-3 in that time, being one of 12 high-major teams to have a record of at least 10-3.

Of the teams that make a run and steal a bid in the ACC Tournament, Florida State is one of the more popular picks. Yes, they'd have to go through Duke next round, but the Blue Devils are dealing with injuries to two starters. None of that matters if they can't get through Cal on Wednesday evening.

This game will be at 7 p.m. EST on ESPN2 from the Spectrum Center in Charlotte, North Carolina.

Feb 25, 2026; Berkeley, California, USA; California Golden Bears guard Dai Dai Ames (7) reacts after being charged with his fourth foul against the SMU Mustangs during the second half at Haas Pavilion. Mandatory Credit: Robert Edwards-Imagn Images | Robert Edwards-Imagn Images

#9 Cal Golden Bears Breakdown (21-10 Overall, 9-9 ACC)

This is a BIG game for Cal. They're currently in the "Next Four Out" of Joe Lunardi's bracketology. They don't appear on any current bracket from the experts, but they are still on the bubble. A win would at least give them a chance of making the Big Dance. A loss would knock them out entirely.

With how weak the bubble is this year, this is a big chance for Cal to get one more resume-building win.

Since losing to FSU on January 28th, Cal has mostly tread water, going 6-4, with a respectable loss to Clemson, and then a few ugly losses, which include a double-overtime bout with Syracuse, an ugly home blowout to Pitt, and a regular-season closer at Wake Forest. They still struggle on the road, which isn't abnormal for the California teams. Outside the state of California this year, the Golden Bears are 3-6. Two of those wins are against poor Georgia Tech and Boston College teams, who didn't make the ACC Tournament and have since fired their head coaches.

Cal also still relies way too much on their starting five. They are five good players, though, led by All-ACC Third Team selection Dai Dai Ames, who averaged 16.9 PPG this year. They'll also have Lee Dort in this game, who missed the first matchup against FSU. He's a monster rebounder, averaging 7.6 rebounds per game, and someone FSU will need to be prepared for.

Justin Pippen has had a mercurial conference play. Two weeks ago, he had 24 points, 5 assists, 4 rebounds, and 3 steals in a huge win over SMU. He has a combined 24 points in the three games since, including a goose egg against Georgia Tech.

When you pair those two guards with elite floor-spacers in Chris Bell and John Camden, Cal can be tough to guard. But their defense has been where they've stood out this year. They've held ACC teams to shoot 30.6% from deep, and teams weirdly can't make free throws against them.

Mar 4, 2026; Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, USA; Florida State Seminoles guard Robert McCray V. (6) shoots a free throw against the Pittsburgh Panthers during the first half at the Petersen Events Center. Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-Imagn Images | Charles LeClaire-Imagn Images

#8 Florida State Seminoles Breakdown (17-14 Overall, 10-8 ACC)

The last matchup between these two teams was uuuuuugggggglllllyyyyyy.

Florida State led 36-23 at halftime, and it looked like they were on their way to a big win. And when FSU scored the first basket of the half to make it a 15-point game, it felt insurmountable given how the game started. But Cal came storming back behind Justin Pippen, tying the game at 60 with 3:24 remaining. Only four points would be scored for the rest of the game, but FSU scored three of them and won 63-61.

FSU heavily struggled at the free-throw line in that game, going 11/21. They haven't had a performance that bad from the line since, shooting about 73.6% from the line in the last 10 games. It's still not great, but they have been a little more consistent at the line.

The big difference in that game is that Cal was missing Lee Dort, so they didn't have their rebounding presence down low. FSU was able to win the rebounding battle without him in the lineup, but it's different going against Dort than it was playing against Milos Ilic.

One advantage FSU has in this game is its performance away from home. In ACC play, they were 6-3 away from home, while Cal has still struggled outside the state. They do have a big win at Miami, which is something FSU also has. Florida State has found a level of comfort on the road that is rarely found in college basketball, and they'll need that to carry over for the ACC Tournament.

Projected Starters

Florida State

G: Robert McCray V
G: Lajae Jones
F: Thomas Bassong
F: Chauncey Wiggins
F: Alex Steen

Cal

G: Justin Pippen
G: Dai Dai Ames
F: Chris Bell
F: John Camden
F: Lee Dort

3 Keys to the Game

Keep Lee Dort Off the Glass

Cal is a perfect 6-0 in games where Lee Dort has at least 10 rebounds, including upset wins over SMU and North Carolina. If that means FSU tries to get Dort in foul trouble, something he's known to do, then drive at him. There are times when he's not chasing the block because he's too worried about a foul, and he's blocking less than a shot per game. Either find a way to minimize his rebounding, or find a way to get him out of the game.

Make Your Free Throws

Cal either just fouls the right people, or they just get entirely lucky, as they lead the country in opponent free-throw percentage at 66%. FSU shot just 11/21 at the line in the first matchup, with Lajae Jones going 3/6, AJ Swinton going 0/2, Alex Steen going 1/3, and Kobe MaGee and Cam Miles each going 1/2. They have to be more consistent in this game.

Robert McCray V

Robert McCray V was an All-ACC Third Team selection for a reason, but he wasn't as effective in the first game between these teams, going for 11 points and 4 assists. Justin Pippen is a great 1-on-1 defender, so this can be a tough matchup. But McCray has been playing at an elite level for the last month and is coming off a game with 17 points and 12 assists with just one turnover. The more effective he is, the harder Florida State is to stop.

Game Prediction

Florida State is favored by 3.5 points with an over/under of 152.5, per FanDuel Sportsbook.

I love the way FSU has played for the last six weeks, but especially away from home. Since January 20th, they're 6-1 away from home, shooting a lethal 38.3% from three. This is a tough team to stop when they're hitting threes, and I trust their ability to win away from home more than Cal.

Florida State 77, Cal 70

Stick with NoleGameday for more FREE coverage of Florida State Basketball throughout the 2025-26 season.

Follow NoleGameday on and Twitter, Facebook, Instagram, and TikTok