FSU Football Looks to End Road Losing Streak Against No. 10 Alabama Crimson Tide

To say that Florida State has struggled on the road over the last two years would be putting it lightly. Entering Saturday's game against the Alabama Crimson Tide, FSU has lost 9 straight road games, and that doesn't even count neutral-site losses to Georgia and Georgia Tech.

To put that into perspective, the last time the Seminoles lost this many consecutive road games was in the mid-1970s. From 1972 to 1974, FSU lost 11 straight road games. They ended up breaking that streak in a 1-10 season at Miami in 1974, which is where the current streak would be if they lose their next two road games before facing Miami in October.

By the time Alabama and FSU kick off on Saturday, it will have been 1,029 days since the Noles' last road win.

And now, Florida State has fired its athletic director, as Michael Alford was shown the door earlier in the week.

Meanwhile, Alabama hasn't lost a non-conference home game since 2023 against Texas. Before that, you have to go all the way back to 2007 to its infamous loss to Louisiana-Monroe in Nick Saban's first year.

That all goes to say that this is a game that Alabama historically wins and FSU has been losing.

The oddsmakers agree, as they opened Alabama as favorites by 18.5 points.

FSU is coming off a bye week, but had a disappointing loss to SMU before that, where it won the turnover battle 4-1 and still couldn't win the game. Meanwhile, Alabama had a shaky start early on the road against Kentucky, but took off for a 45-17 win.

Is there any chance FSU can pull off the upset? Here are three things I'm watching for.

Florida State head coach Mike Norvell watches as players put in work during practice with the first home game just a few weeks away, Thursday, Aug. 13, 2026. | USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

FSU's Road Woes

Just saying the 'Noles have been losing on the road doesn't quite put it in perspective. They've been dreadful.

During this nine-game losing streak, they've lost with an average score of 34-16. They have scored more than 20 points twice and more than 21 points only once. Also, the defense has never allowed fewer than 20 points.

The biggest reason for that has been the turnovers. FSU is -14 in the turnover margin in those nine games, turning it over 20 times while only forcing 6. That's not a recipe for success. The yardage has actually been pretty even, but the turnovers have been so costly.

They've also had a lot more penalties on the road. When you have more penalties and turnovers on the road, that's generally due to poor preparation and execution, which falls on the coaching staff. Shocking.

Can FSU Be Disciplined With Their Defensive Pressure?

FSU's defensive line isn't good enough or big enough to generate pressure by itself, so it's on Tony White to dial up pressure to impact the sophomore Keelon Russell, who is making his third career start on Saturday.

Russell struggled early against Kentucky last weekend, but ended up 16/23 for 188 yards with one touchdown and two interceptions. The biggest thing is that they limited his legs, as he finished with -8 rushing yards after being sacked four times.

That's a big change after he had 86 rushing yards against East Carolina in their first game.

If FSU is going to have a chance at contending in this game, they're going to have to be disciplined in their rushing lanes when they bring pressure. Defensive coordinator Tony White tried a few different blitzes against Kevin Jennings on SMU, who was experienced enough to get rid of the ball quickly.

Russell may panic more and look to run, and if the Seminoles aren't disciplined, he could run free. Nothing about what we've seen from them so far this season would make me think they'll be disciplined in this game.

Sep 7, 2026; Tallahassee, Florida, USA; Florida State Seminoles quarterback Ashton Daniels (14) looks to pass against the Southern Methodist Mustangs during the first half at Doak S. Campbell Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Melina Myers-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

What Version of Ashton Daniels Will FSU Get?

Ashton Daniels played Alabama last year as Auburn's starter and was... fine, finishing with 259 passing yards on 18/39 passing for a touchdown and an interception, adding 108 rushing yards.

Mike Norvell has had tight reins on Daniels so far this season, really not letting him turn the ball loose. Of his 50 passing attempts this season, only 16 have traveled 10+ yards beyond the line of scrimmage, and only 6 of those were throws outside the numbers.

Daniels has also been extremely hesitant about every decision. A wide-open throw? He double-clutches before throwing behind the receiver. A read option? He's 50/50 on making the correct decision. A wide-open running lane? He's stuttering his feet and only getting three yards when he could get eight.

It's frustrating to watch, and while Daniels isn't a good quarterback, some of it could be Norvell telling him to limit mistakes. When all they're doing is trying to take away mistakes, he's going to be too afraid to rip any throw that isn't completely open.

If FSU gets the version of Daniels they've seen in the first two weeks, this is going to be an ugly, ugly game for FSU.

It doesn't help that the offensive line in front of him is lackluster. Chimdia Nwaiwu was benched halfway through the second game, and they'll be going against a defense that has produced 7 sacks in two games.

Game Prediction

Spoiler: I do think this gets ugly. I don't think Alabama is elite, as they're still working out the kinks with their running game and a young quarterback, but FSU won't have much to catch Alabama off guard with, like they did last year.

Micahi Danzy's jet sweeps haven't worked since the middle of last season. Ashton Daniels isn't nearly as elusive as Thomas Castellanos. Darrell Jackson isn't around anymore to eat up double teams to let everyone else eat. Remember when Mandrell Desir said last year that playing against Alabama felt like high school? I can guarantee you Alabama remembers.

FSU has also been so bad on the road under Mike Norvell since the start of the 2024 season. They look unprepared and often uninterested. While they should be able to get excited about playing Alabama on the road, that excitement is probably going to lead to mistakes.

The spread started at 18.5, and I'd be surprised if it's even that close.

Alabama 45, Florida State 10

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