NoleGameday Staff Score Predictions: Florida State Seminoles vs. Miami Hurricanes
This is a week that every Florida State fan has had circled on their calendars since the schedule was released in January. There are not many rivalries around the country that are more fierce than when the Seminoles and Hurricanes meet up each year.
It's been tough for one team to separate itself from the other during this millennium. The Seminoles and Hurricanes are 12-12 since 2000, despite Miami winning six straight from 2000-04 and Florida State winning seven straight from 2010-16.
The last two games have gone in favor of FSU. The Seminoles rallied in 2021 following. a game-winning drive that featured a big catch from Ja'Khi Douglas, a 4th & 14 conversion to Andrew Parchment, and a rushing touchdown plus a two-point conversion by quarterback Jordan Travis. It wasn't close last season as head coach Mike Norvell guided his team to a 45-3 victory in Miami Gardens.
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Will that change in 2023? It remains to be seen as both teams enter this contest with question marks surrounding who will be available. FSU is hoping Johnny Wilson and Keon Coleman will be able to return while Miami quarterback Tyler Van Dyke has been playing through injuries.
Our staff provides their analysis and predictions as the Seminoles prepare to take on the Hurricanes.
Dustin Lewis (@DustinLewisNG)
Florida State didn't get an opportunity to put up any style points during the slugfest against Pittsburgh last weekend. The Seminoles will be trying to change that when Miami comes to Tallahassee in a high-profile rivalry game that will certainly catch the eyes of the College Football Playoff selection committee.
The Hurricanes are 6-3 but that record is a little skewed with wins over Miami (OH), Temple, and Bethune-Cookman. Plus, Miami's only conference victories came in overtime against Clemson and Virginia. Regardless, there's no doubt this is a team that possesses talent and can provide a threat if Florida State doesn't put them away early.
Rivalry games are always tough to predict. With that being said, the Hurricanes are 1-2 away from home and might be forced to start a true freshman on the road if Tyler Van Dyke is unable to suit up. This game will probably come down to whether the Seminoles can limit Miami on the ground as the 'Canes have four running backs with 250+ rushing yards.
I expect this game to be close for the majority of the first half as we've seen Florida State come out slow at times. However, the Seminoles will pull away due to their depth and the playmaking ability of Jordan Travis. Outside of predicting FSU to win, I also think Travis will hit 100 touchdowns for his college career.
2023 Season Prediction Record: 9-0
Seminoles 34, Hurricanes 13
Logan Robinson (@LogansTwitty)
Miami is going to have to get something going offensively and I don’t trust Tyler Van Dyke’s health whatsoever going into this game. It feels a lot like last year’s game offensively for the Hurricanes but with a better running game.
I expect FSU’s veteran linebacker room to handle their business. With Johnny Wilson most likely back, that is going to help offensively going against a talented Miami safety room and a young talented pass rusher in Rueben Bain. The Seminoles get their 10th win on the season.
2023 Season Prediction Record: 9-0
Seminoles 34, Hurricanes 10
Austin Veazey (@EasyVeazeyNG)
I've had a feeling since the Pitt game that Florida State would win this game big. Miami's offense has been almost non-existent in ACC play, outside of the UNC game, and Tyler Van Dyke has been horrible, to say the least. Even if they decide to make a change at QB, that would mean starting a true freshman in his second career start in Doak Campbell, and that's a tough ask.
FSU will have to contain Rueben Bain as a pass rusher, and Kamren Kinchens is always capable of making a big play in the secondary for Miami, but the Hurricanes haven't shown anything offensively recently to make me think they stand a chance for an entire 60 minutes. I think the 'Noles roll by a few touchdowns and put on a show for the 100+ recruits visiting for this game as long as the receiver room is healthier.
2023 Season Prediction Record: 9-0
Seminoles 38, Hurricanes 13
Dillon Riera (@13d_riera)
Let me tell you a story. It's the tale of two teams, separated by more than just the miles between them. The University of Miami brought the swagger. They ran the college football landscape in the 80's and asserted their dominance over any team standing in their way. That dominance, however, ran straight into the Florida State programs of the 90's. Under the tutelage of the late Bobby Bowden, the Seminoles climbed the mountaintop of the college football world and seemingly stayed there for years on end. The 'Canes eventually returned to the top in the early 2000s followed by a short stint of national relevance from the 'Noles in the early 2010s. A unique mix of championship blood and absolute hatred courses through the veins of this living, breathing rivalry. After decades of history between these two programs, hatred is what defines their relationship. It's a "They don't like us and we don't like them" mentality year in and year out. Season records, standout players, and national title hopes all get tossed to the wind because these two teams will rise to the occasion regardless. This is the story of Florida State and Miami.
Under head coach Mike Norvell, the Seminoles have clawed their way back from the depths of despair. The once 3-win program now boasts a 9-0 record, a clinched berth in their conference championship, and a #4 CFP ranking. With one conference opponent remaining on the schedule, the 'Noles are eyeing a deep postseason run. What stands in their way, however, is their bitter rival from the south. The Miami Hurricanes (6-3, 2-3 ACC) are coming off of a demoralizing loss at the hands of NC State, and they've won just 2 of their last 5 matchups, both of which came in overtime thrillers. The 'Canes are a team looking for an identity, but they would love nothing more than to assume the identity of an upset bid this weekend.
Florida State showed signs of struggle against Pittsburgh last week. Granted, their offense was without its biggest contributors in the receiving game, but it was a slow burn for the 'Noles to get to 24 on the afternoon. Their strength is undoubtedly their passing game, which averages 293.9 passing yards per game (19th best in the country) and has driven the Seminoles to put up 39.6 points per game (9th best in the nation). If Johnny Wilson and Keon Coleman are back in the lineup for the Seminoles, watch out. Florida State's run game has been categorized as lackluster as of late, and that could spell trouble. Miami is currently the 9th best team in the country at defending the run, yielding 89.2 rushing yards per game. Luckily for the 'Noles, running back Trey Benson has shown signs of having found his groove and FSU will need his presence come Saturday. Meanwhile, Florida State's defense continues to impress. They've allowed just 4 passing touchdowns on the year and hold opponents to an average of 17 points per game. FSU's defense will be instrumental in limiting UM quarterback Tyler Van Dyke and an offense that hasn't eclipsed 30 points in nearly four weeks.
If Florida State plays to its potential, they should have little to no issues with the Hurricanes on Saturday. This is a University of Miami team that is more bark than bite. Sure, they have a 6-3 record, but just take a look at some of those teams in the first half of their schedule: Miami (OH), Bethune Cookman, and Temple. The Seminoles are the more battle-tested team, but are they worse for wear? Has their hard-fought season already left them beaten and bruised? ESPN's FPI gives FSU an 85% chance at victory with Vegas favoring the 'Noles by two scores (-14). Every statistic currently points to the Seminoles successfully defending their home turf. However, it's like I said: these two programs always show up to play each other.
Miami got embarrassed last year and gave up a 4th & 14 the year prior to lose the game. They've got two years' worth of animosity built up, and they'll be looking to get back this time around (with the cherry on top being FSU's high ranking). Florida State, on the other hand, is showcasing an unmatched level of determination as they look to close out the season with victories en route to a playoff berth. I don't think that goal ends on Saturday. The Seminoles will be fueled by a sold-out home crowd (and a goldfish) to make a statement at the expense of their bitter rival. Miami may hang around for a half or so, but the 'Noles will pull away when it matters most. Look for quarterback Jordan Travis to come out with a fire in him for his final matchup against the 'Canes. When the final seconds tick off of the clock, Florida State will be popping off the fireworks and celebrating their third straight victory over Miami.
2023 Season Prediction Record: 9-0
Seminoles 38, Hurricanes 20
Tommy Mire (@TommyM3III)
With questions surrounding the starting quarterback for Miami, Florida State should come out on top in this one. The Seminole defense is playing its best football of the season, and a hurt Tyler Van Dyke or a young Emory Williams will have difficulty moving the offense.
The Hurricanes have a decent secondary but if Coleman and Wilson are back and healthy I wouldn’t expect this one to come down to the wire.
Florida State has the home-field advantage and should win by at least two scores.
2023 Season Prediction Record: 9-0
Seminoles 35, Huricanes 14
Kade Kimble (@kadekimble)
Miami has talent on its team, and the Hurricanes are going to make life tough for Florida State. The Seminoles are just a few big mistakes away from this being a close game, and given the rivalry, it feels like one that ends up being close but FSU pulls it out.
A lot will be riding on Florida State’s defense in this one.
2023 Season Prediction Record: 9-0
Seminoles 34, Hurricanes 30
Robert Malcom (@kwrobertm)
Week after week the Seminoles have proved doubters wrong, and while there have been a few scares for FSU throughout the season, they always seem to figure things out, usually in dominating fashion. Despite their strong 4-0 start to the season, the Canes have gone 2-3 since and are 1-2 on the road. While the roster is filled with talented players, there have been some questionable decisions from the coaching staff that seem to prevent the team from playing to their full potential.
FSU is also just a better football team. Jordan Travis is coming off of a season-high passing game with 360 yards without his two leading receivers, there is no doubt the Seminoles are looking to only improve from last week, especially if Johnny Wilson and Keon Coleman return to the field. While I would like to think Miami is a better team than last year, I wouldn't be surprised if the FSU defense plays to the same level they did in 2022 as they have embarrassed offenses throughout the season and seem to get better as the season goes on.
2023 Season Prediction Record: 9-0
Seminoles 38, Hurricanes 17
CONSENSUS: Florida State (7-0)
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