FSU Basketball to Close Regular Season With Rematch Against SMU Mustangs

Florida State and Luke Loucks have had an incredible midseason turnaround, going 9-3 since January 20th, one of the best records in the ACC over that time. Because of that stretch, they now have a chance to be as high as the 7th seed for the ACC Tournament starting next week, which would be a huge win for this team.

To do so, they'll need a few things to fall their way, but it starts with beating SMU at home. This will be the second matchup between these teams this year, as SMU came away with a tight 83-80 win in Dallas on January 24th. This is a big game for both teams.

The last regular-season game of the year will be at 2 p.m. EST on the ACC Network from the Donald L. Civic Center in Tallahassee, Florida.

Feb 28, 2026; Stanford, California, USA; Southern Methodist University Mustangs guard Jaron Pierre Jr. (5) during the second half against the Stanford Cardinal at Maples Pavilion. Mandatory Credit: Darren Yamashita-Imagn Images | Darren Yamashita-Imagn Images

SMU Mustangs Breakdown (19-11 Overall, 8-9 ACC)

With this being the second time Florida State and SMU have played, we get to just do a little bit of catch-up.

SMU looked like it was going to roll into the NCAA Tournament a month ago. They were 17-7 overall and 6-5 in the ACC. Then, they stumbled on the road at Syracuse. Losses happen, so it shouldn't have been a huge deal, and they rebounded with a big win against Louisville, then took care of business against Boston College. Since then, the Mustangs have lost three straight games to Cal, Stanford, and Miami.

A big reason for those losses is the absence of BJ Edwards, who is a favorite for ACC Defensive Player of the Year, and he's had some big offensive moments as well. He went down in the Stanford game with an ankle injury, and then he has missed the last two games against Cal and Miami.

He is a big part of what they do, averaging 12.7 PPG, 5.9 RPG, 4.9 APG, and leads the ACC at 2.3 SPG. That has forced a team with little depth to rely on it a little more. Jermaine O'Neal Jr. started in the game against Miami, putting up 3 points, 6 rebounds, and 3 steals, while Jaden Toombs started the game before that.

Entering this game, Edwards is currently listed as questionable, but ESPN's Pete Thamel reported on Friday that he is unlikely to play, so it will be something to monitor.

SMU desperately needs to win this game, as another loss could push them to the outside looking in of the NCAA Tournament, barring a deep run in the ACC Tournament. They're going to play with desperation; FSU needs to match that.

Florida State Seminoles Breakdown (16-14 Overall, 9-8 ACC)

Florida State has won five straight ACC road games, and has now won 6 ACC road games in general. Both of those tie program records, and it is a testament to the work that Luke Loucks has gone through to turn the team around.

To get the 7th seed in the ACC Tournament, FSU needs three things to happen: FSU needs to beat SMU, NC State needs to beat Stanford, and Miami needs to beat Louisville. All three of those things have to happen, as if NC State, FSU, and Louisville all end up tied for 6th (Cal could be in this group as well), NC State would get the 6th seed, and FSU would get the 7th due to head-to-head over Cal, and they have the secondary tiebreaker over Louisville, which would be a win over Miami.

That would be the absolute best-case scenario, as FSU would get the first-round bye and would avoid Duke's side of the bracket. That would give them the best possible chance to make a run, and they absolutely are capable of making one.

They'll need to play better than they did in the second half against Pitt on Wednesday, though. FSU looked like they were going to blow the game open, going up by 24 at the start of the second half, but Pitt came roaring back. They never took the lead, but they did get it down to 1 in the final seconds. FSU hung on, just barely, but a win is still a win, especially on the road.

AJ Swinton had been coming into his own in the last few weeks before going down with a knee injury against Pitt. There hasn't been any word yet, but it's unlikely he plays in the ACC Tournament next week, or if FSU were to take an NIT bid (or similar postseason event).

I am watching to see how they shoot from three in this game. Outside of a 14/30 performance from deep against Duke, FSU has shot just 48/193 (24.9%) from three at home, which is wildly low for home games.

Projected Starters

Florida State

G: Robert McCray V
G: Kobe MaGee (or Thomas Bassong, but this could be a senior day thing)
G: Lajae Jones
F: Chauncey Wiggins
F: Alex Steen

SMU

G: Kevin "Boopie" Miller
G: Jaron Pierre Jr.
F: Corey Washington
F: Jermaine O'Neal Jr.
F: Samet Yigitoglu

3 Keys to the Game

How Does SMU Try to Play Without BJ Edwards?

I'm under the assumption that BJ Edwards won't play in this game, which takes away an elite defender and a great secondary playmaker. If he's not able to go, I expect FSU to try to take away Boopie Miller's ball-handling responsibilities as much as possible. They also have to watch out for Jaron Pierre Jr.'s shot-making, as he tormented the Seminoles for 28 points in January.

Robert McCray V's Efficiency and Decision-Making

One of the reasons Florida State played as well as it did against SMU six weeks ago was because of Robert McCray V, who had 21 points, 9 assists, and just 2 turnovers. However, he wasn't the most efficient from the floor, shooting just 10/21 and missing his only free-throw attempt. If he keeps his turnovers down and his efficiency up, FSU will have a chance. But, as we saw in the rematch against Miami last week, teams know they need to take him away.

Sound Defense

SMU's offense can be high-octane, but it will be a little rougher for them without BJ Edwards. FSU still has to be prepared for Boopie Miller and Jaron Pierre Jr., who can make shots from anywhere. If they can keep those two limited, force them to take contested shots, and not send the Mustangs to the free-throw line, the Seminoles will have a great chance.

Game Prediction

Florida State is favored by 1.5 points with an over/under of 159.5, per FanDuel Sportsbook.

BJ Edwards likely being out for this game changes a lot. He's SMU's best defender, and could've been motivated to limit Robert McCray V. Without him, I think this game swings in FSU's favor.

Florida State 80, SMU 76

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