Computer Model Projects Auburn to Defeat Georgia This Weekend

Georgia may be the two-time defending national champion that owns that nation's longest current win-streak dating back to December of 2021, but according to a computer model, the Bulldogs will fall to Auburn on Saturday when the two teams square off inside Jordan-Hare Stadium.

Heading into Saturday's showdown on the Plains, Georgia is currently favored by 14.5 points over Auburn, a comfortable margin by any standards. However, College Football Nerds, a popular college football YouTube channel that takes an analytical approach to analyzing and projecting college football games, is challenging the prevailing wisdom that the Bulldogs will roll into Jordan-Hare Stadium on Saturday and defeat the Tigers for the seventh-consecutive time the two teams have played. The channel relies on a computer model to aid them in predicting games every fall Saturday and that model has yielded a startling week five projection.

It predicts that Auburn will beat Georgia on Saturday.

Yes, the Auburn team that just got doubled up in total yards by Texas A&M last week. Yes, the Auburn team that beat Cal 14-10 in a week two barn-burner. Yes, the Auburn team that has been held to under 230 yards of total offense in each of its two games against Power 5 opponents this season.

The College Football Nerds computer model projects that Auburn team to defeat Georgia this weekend.

According to the model, the Tigers are favored to defeat the Bulldogs 30.7-30.6. While that may be the slimmest margin possible, considering the context, it is still quite surprising to see a computer model even predict Auburn to come close to defeating the two-time defending national champion.

In defense of their model's projection, in a tweet CFB Nerds explained that the relative success that Georgia's opponents have had rushing against the Bulldogs matched with Auburn's success running the football this season is what is driving their model's prediction.

The fascinating stat that leads to our model favoring Auburn over Georgia:
- Georgia is yet to allow 3.5 yards/carry in FBS play
- Every opponent set their FBS season high in rushing vs Georgia

UGA's opponents are *so* bad that dominating them appears below-average defensively. pic.twitter.com/nZgHyMkxNE
— College Football Nerds (@CFBNerds) September 24, 2023

While it is true that Auburn has had tremendous success running the football this year, currently ranking second in the SEC in rushing offense with 197 rush yards per game, and will certainly challenge the Bulldogs on the ground in a way in which they have not been challenged to this point, it is seemingly failing to account for the context of those games in which Georgia was subbing liberally and sitting starters early in the second half. The Bulldogs have also been operating short-handed with injuries to a number of key defenders that project to return for Saturday's contest against Auburn.

While this is a new season with new players, Georgia has also traditionally feasted on one-dimensional offenses, of which Auburn certainly qualifies. The Tigers do indeed rank second in the SEC in rushing offense, but they are currently dead last in passing offense in the league. When Georgia has been challenged by and even beaten by teams over the past five seasons, it has been by virtue of dynamic passing attacks. Georgia has faced a team in the bottom three of the SEC in passing offense eight times since 2020. In those eight games, Georgia's opponents have combined to averaged 225 total yards of offense and 8.6 points per game.

Nothing is impossible in the world of college football, but despite the prediction by CFB Nerds' computer model, if Auburn defeats Georgia on Saturday, it will have to overcome overwhelming history and trends to do so.