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Here is What ESPN's BPI Says About Georgia Tech's 1st Round Matchup With Notre Dame

Can Georgia Tech beat Notre Dame and advance to the second round of the ACC Tournament?

The ACC Tournament tips off today with a matchup between Georgia Tech and Notre Dame. These two teams are close together in the ACC standings, as well as any advanced metric that you take a look at. In Kenpom, Notre Dame is ranked No. 124 and Georgia Tech is No. 126. In the NCAA NET Rankings, Georgia Tech is No. 122 and Notre Dame is 122. Vegas sees this as a close game as well, with the Fighting Irish a 1.5 point favorite coming into the day. ESPN's BPI has this game as a virtual tossup as well, with Georgia Tech being a slight favorite. 

But what is BPI? Here is how ESPN describes it:

"The Basketball Power Index (BPI) is a measure of team strength that is meant to be the best predictor of performance going forward. BPI represents how many points above or below average a team is. Strength of Record (SOR) is a measure of team accomplishment based on how difficult a team's W-L record is to achieve. Game predictions account for opponent strength, pace of play, site, travel distance, day's rest and altitude, and are used to simulate the season 10,000 times to produce season projections. Numbers update daily."

ESPN's BPI is giving Georgia Tech a 52% chance to beat Notre Dame today. 

This is the third matchup of the year between these two teams, with Notre Dame winning each of them by a combined ten points. Georgia Tech has won four of their last six games while the Fighting Irish have recent wins over Clemson and Wake Forest.

The winner of this game is going to advance to face No. 5 Wake Forest.

Georgia Tech and Notre Dame are meeting in the ACC Tournament for the second time. The 15th-seeded Fighting Irish defeated the No. 10-seed Yellow Jackets, 78-71, in the opening round of the 2019 tournament in Charlotte.

In Tech’s 45-year history in the ACC, the Yellow Jackets have lost three games to a team in the same season 14 times, most recently in 2022-23 to Pittsburgh. Notre Dame defeated the Jackets twice during th regular season, 75-68 in overtime in Atlanta, and 58-55 in South Bend.

Miles Kelly (14.1 ppg) leads three Yellow Jackets averaging in double figures this season, including freshman forward Baye Ndongo (12.0) and junior guard Kowacie Reeves, Jr. (10.0). Tech’s other rotation players average between 4.8 and 9.3 points per game.

Notre Dame has one of the better defenses in the ACC, with only Virginia ranking higher in PPG allowed. The Fighting Irish are also 4th in field goal percentage allowed and sixth in three-point percentage allowed.

Georgia Tech Forward Baye Ndongo vs Virginia

Georgia Tech Forward Baye Ndongo vs Virginia

Offensively, Notre Dame struggles. They are 14th in the ACC in PPG, last in field goal percentage, 14th in three-point percentage, 7th in rebounding, and 14th in turnovers. The offense for Notre Dame revolves around freshman guard Markus Burton, who averages 17.3 PPG while shooting 42.3% from the field and 29.7% from three. The Yellow Jackets defense is going to have to key in on him and fellow guard Braeden Shrewsberry to ensure they advance today.

For Georgia Tech, there are a few keys to today's game. The Yellow Jackets have to keep turnovers and points off turnovers to a minimum, three-point shooting has to be better, and Miles Kelly has to be close to full strength. After the Virginia game, Damon Stoudamire said that Kelly was struggling with a back issue.

How to Watch Georgia Tech vs Notre Dame

Who: Georgia Tech vs Notre Dame

When: 2:00 p.m., Tuesday, March 11th

Where: Capital One Arena, Washington D.C.

Watch: ACC Network

Radio: Georgia Tech Sports Network by Legends Sports (In Atlanta: 680 AM/93.7 The Fan) | SiriusXM channel 371

Other ways to listen: SiriusXM app | Listen Online | Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets App | TuneIn