No Shot for An Upset? ESPN's BPI is Not Optimistic About Georgia Tech's Chances of Beating SMU Today

Georgia Tech had their three-game winning streak snapped on Tuesday on the road against Syracuse, but they are hoping to bounce back today against SMU. This is the first meeting between the Yellow Jackets and the Mustangs as conference foes and SMU is off to a solid start in their new conference.

The Yellow Jackets are an underdog with odds makers (SMU is a 9.5 point favorite) and with ESPN's BPI (Basketball Power Index). BPI is giving SMU an 81% chance to win the game today.

But what is BPI? Here is how ESPN describes it:

"The Basketball Power Index (BPI) is a measure of team strength that is meant to be the best predictor of performance going forward. BPI represents how many points above or below average a team is. Strength of Record (SOR) is a measure of team accomplishment based on how difficult a team's W-L record is to achieve. Game predictions account for opponent strength, pace of play, site, travel distance, day's rest and altitude, and are used to simulate the season 10,000 times to produce season projections. Numbers update daily."

SMU (11-4, 2-2 ACC) has lost their last two games decisively to Duke (89-62) and at North Carolina (82-67), which followed a six-game winning streak. Among those six wins were conference triumphs over Virginia at home (63-51) and Boston College (103-77) on the road. A win over SMU would give Georgia Tech its first Quad 1 win of the 2024-25 season. The Yellow Jackets are 0-4 vs. Quad 1 teams this season with losses to Duke (2), Georgia (29), North Carolina (39), and Oklahoma (44). Tech was 4-7 vs. Quad 1 teams in 2023-24. Tech’s two ACC road losses have come by a total of 10 points. The Jackets lost 68-65 at North Carolina on Dec. 7 and 62-55 at Syracuse Tuesday. In Tech’s other true road game, a 76-61 loss at Oklahoma, the Jackets led by four at halftime and were within five points with less than five minutes remaining.

Of the three new members of the ACC, Tech has faced SMU the most, winning eight of the 14 all-time meetings in a series that dates back to the 1959-60 season. All of the previous 14 meetings took place during the month of December. The teams last met on Dec. 21, 1986 halfway around the world in the Suntory Ball Tournament in Tokyo, Japan, with Tech capturing a 63-54 victory.

Georgia Tech guard Lance Terr — Jan 7, 2025; Syracuse, New York, USA; Syracuse Orange forward Jyare Davis (13) and Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets guard Lance Terry (0) go for a loose ball in the first half at the JMA Wireless Dome. Mandatory Credit: Mark Konezny-Imagn Images | Mark Konezny-Imagn Images

Sophomores Baye Ndongo and Naithan George are the only Yellow Jackets to have started every game this season; no one else has started more than 11. Ndongo has started 45 consecutive games, George 44, dating back to last season. At Syracuse, the Yellow Jackets snapped a three-game streak in which they had shot 54 percent or better, setting season highs in each game (36.4% vs. Syracuse). Tech has connected on less than 40 percent of its field goal tries seven times this season.

Senior guard Lance Terry has averaged 18.5 points in his last four games. The senior guard has gone 26-of-45 (57.8%) from the floor, 12-of-24 from three-point range (50%). Terry has scored 20-plus points in five games this season and leads the Jackets in scoring at 15.8 points per game (16.2 ppg in ACC games). Terry’s shooting splits across the Jackets’ last 4 games are 57.8% FG/50% 3pt FG/55.6% FT.

Naithan George has posted two double-doubles in points and assists this season, scoring 10 points with 10 assists against Boston College and 16 points with 11 assists vs. Central Arkansas. George has posted 8 games of 7 or more assists this season.

Here is how you can watch today's game.

Saturday, January 11, 2025 | 4 p.m. EST | Dallas, Texas | Moody Coliseum

Television: ESPN2 (Announcers: Doug Sherman, Theo Pinson)

Radio: Georgia Tech Sports Network by Legends Sports (In Atlanta: 680 AM/93.7 The Fan)

Announcers: Andy Demetra, Randy Waters

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