Notre Dame vs. UConn Prediction, Odds, Key Player for Women’s NCAA Tournament Elite 8

Azzi Fudd and the UConn Huskies’ quest to defend their national championship continues on Sunday in the Elite 8, and they remain odds-on favorites to win the NCAA Tournament.

The Huskies didn’t have their best showing in the Sweet 16, shooting just 40 percent from the field and 20 percent from 3 in a win over the North Carolina Tar Heels. Still, UConn’s defense (No. 1 in Bart Torvik’s adjusted defensive efficiency) dominated the game, holding North Carolina to just 42 points.

Oddsmakers don’t seem to be too worried about the Huskies’ offensive struggles in the Sweet 16, as they’re favored by 27.5 points against the No. 6 Notre Dame Fighting Irish in the Elite 8.

Notre Dame has one of the best players in the country in guard Hannah Hidalgo, who had a triple-double (with 10 steals!) in the Sweet 16 to upset No. 2 Vanderbilt.

These teams played back on Jan. 19, and UConn ran away with that matchup (85-47) behind 18 points and 11 rebounds from superstar sophomore Sarah Strong.

Can the Huskies follow a similar script and cover on Sunday?

Let’s dive into the odds, a player to watch and my prediction for this Elite 8 showdown.

Notre Dame vs. UConn Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook

Spread

Notre Dame +27.5 (-110)
UConn -27.5 (-110)

Moneyline

Notre Dame: N/A
UConn: N/A

Total

141.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Notre Dame vs. UConn How to Watch

Date: Sunday, March 29
Time: 1:00 p.m. EST
Venue: Dickies Arena
How to Watch (TV): ABC
Notre Dame record: 25-10
UConn record: 37-0

Notre Dame vs. UConn Key Player to Watch

Hannah Hidalgo, Guard, Notre Dame

Notre Dame’s chances in this game rest on the shoulders of Hidalgo, who completely took over the game against Vanderbilt in the Sweet 16. The junior guard finished with 31 points, 11 rebounds, seven assists and 10 steals, shooting 14-for-25 from the field.

Hidalgo has at least 23 points in every single NCAA Tournament game this season, and she’s averaging 25.3 points, 6.8 rebounds, 5.3 assists and 5.7 steals per game in the 2025-26 season. Hidalgo is one of the most disruptive perimeter defenders we’ve ever seen in college basketball, and the Fighting Irish will need her to steal a bunch of possessions from the Huskies on Sunday.

Earlier this season, UConn held Hidalgo to just 16 points, four rebounds, two assists and three steals in an easy win. Notre Dame needs a much better performance if it wants to cover on Sunday.

Notre Dame vs. UConn Prediction and Pick

Notre Dame was able to upset Vanderbilt on Friday afternoon, but the Fighting Irish benefitted from the fact that the Commodores are a shaky defensive team, ranking 251st in the country in opponent effective field goal percentage.

That won’t be the case with UConn (third in opponent eFG% this season) on Sunday. The Huskies already have a 38-point win against Notre Dame this season, and they should have a much easier time scoring the ball on Sunday.

UConn’s offense sputtered early against the Tar Heels in the Sweet 16, but UNC is 13th in the country in opponent eFG% and eighth in adjusted defensive efficiency. Notre Dame ranks 259th and 19th in those two categories this season.

Yes, Hidalgo can disrupt games by stealing the ball, but the Huskies are seventh in college basketball in turnover rate. So, Notre Dame may not get as many extra possessions as it’s used to on Sunday.

I can’t look past the fact that UConn shot terribly in the Sweet 16 and still found a way to win by 21 points. If the Huskies come back to their usual level in the Elite 8, they should run away with this game.

Pick: UConn -27.5 (-110 at FanDuel)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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