What Does SP+ and ESPN's FPI Predict for Georgia Tech's Matchup With Virginia Tech?
The betting market is expecting a close game between Georgia Tech and Virginia Tech, with the spread sitting at only three points in favor of Virginia Tech.
Oddsmakers usually have a good idea of how teams match up with each other and this is one of the few times this year that Georgia Tech has only been a slight underdog. Duke was a similar type of favorite a few weeks ago in Atlanta and the Yellow Jackets emerged victorious.
Georgia Tech is a slight underdog in most analytical models against Virginia Tech
ESPN uses its FPI (Football Power Index) as an advanced analytical model to help look at matchups and predict outcomes. In ESPN's own words: "FPI is a predictive rating system designed to measure team strength and project performance going forward. The ultimate goal of FPI is not to rank teams 1 through 128; rather, it is to correctly predict games and season outcomes. If Vegas ever published the power rankings it uses to set its lines, they would likely look quite a lot like FPI."
This week, FPI is giving Virginia Tech a 60.5% chance to win.
SP+ is on the side of the Hokies as well but think it will be larger than the three-point spread set by Vegas.
Here is what SP+ is in Connelly's own words:
"What is SP+? In a single sentence, it's a tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency. I created the system at Football Outsiders in 2008, and as my experience with both college football and its stats has grown, I have made quite a few tweaks to the system."
"SP+ is intended to be predictive and forward-facing. It is not a résumé ranking that gives credit for big wins or particularly brave scheduling -- no good predictive system is. It is simply a measure of the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football. If you're lucky or unimpressive in a win, your rating will probably fall. If you're strong and unlucky in a loss, it will probably rise."
This week, SP+ has Virginia Tech as a 5.5-point projected winner. It has Virginia Tech winning 26-20.
I also expect a close game from both of these teams and for it to be low-scoring. It will be up to the Yellow Jackets to prove both systems wrong and get their fourth win of the season.
Follow us on social media for the latest with Georgia Tech Athletics!
Facebook: All Yellow Jackets
Twitter: @AllYellowJacket
Follow Jackson on Twitter: @jacksoncaudell
See all of the latest Tech News at AllYellowJackets.com
Check out the Georgia Tech Homepage
Listen to the Goal Line Stand Podcast for the best Georgia Tech and national college football coverage!
More Georgia Tech Related Content:
Everything from Josh Pastner's press conference before the start of the season
Everything from Nell Fortner's press conference before the season
Georgia Tech head coaching candidate profile: Bill Clark
How to watch, listen to, and live stream Georgia Tech vs Virginia Tech
Georgia Tech Offensive Lineman Joe Fusile named Burlsworth Trophy Nominee
Georgia Tech in the NFL: How did former Yellow Jackets do in week eight?
Brent Key gives an update on Jeff Sims ahead of Saturday's game with Virginia Tech
Georgia Tech releases depth chart ahead of matchup with Virginia Tech
Georgia Tech Volleyball remains in AVCA Top Ten for Third Straight Week
