ESPN's FPI Predicts The Winner Of Georgia Tech vs Clemson

Georgia Tech given a slightly higher chance to defeat Clemson according to ESPN analytics, but remains a slight underdog against the spread.

Nov 11, 2023; Clemson, South Carolina, USA; Clemson Tigers head coach Dabo Swinney shakes hands with Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets head coach Brent Key after defeating the Yellow Jackets at Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Ken Ruinard-Imagn Images | Ken Ruinard-Imagn Images

Georgia Tech has its biggest matchup of the season at home against the Clemson Tigers this Saturday. The Yellow Jackets are no strangers to big upset wins, especially at home. Last year, the Yellow Jackets picked up an upset win against then No. 4 Miami, handing the Hurricanes their first loss of the season. In the Brent Key era, Georgia Tech is no stranger to big wins and beating quality opponents. In fact, Key has six ranked wins in his tenure with the Yellow Jackets. He picked up another upset win against then No. 10 Florida State to kick off the 2024 season. It is in Coach Key’s DNA and what he has brought to the program.

One of the key factors to watch in this game is the health of star quarterback Haynes King, who is nursing a lower-body injury that caused him to miss last week’s game against Gardner-Webb. No official status has been announced yet.

Can Georgia Tech beat Clemson?

Clemson tight end Josh Sapp (5) catches a pass for a touchdown near Georgia Tech linebacker Paul Moala (13) during the fourth quarter Nov 11, 2023; Clemson, South Carolina, USA; at Memorial Stadium. | Ken Ruinard / USA TODAY NETWORK

It is an interesting look when you break down the Georgia Tech vs Clemson game. Coming into the week, the Tigers were a 9.5 favorite according to the spread against Georgia Tech. That spread has changed as we inch closer to game time to just 3.5 for Clemson. ESPN’s FPI gives the Yellow Jackets a 55.9% chance of winning the game at home against the Tigers. Clemson is given just a 44.1% chance. The Yellow Jackets are garnering more respect from the analytics and multiple national outlets ahead of the matchup.

Surprisingly, Georgia Tech has seen some of its numbers drop in the ESPN FPI percentages.. Their chance to win the conference has dropped from 28.5% to 15.6%. The Yellow Jackets', after the Yellow Jackets' emphatic win over Gardner-Webb, but it appears chances of making the College Football Playoff have also dropped from 34.5% to 17.1%. It is a little surprising after the Yellow Jackets' emphatic win over Gardner Webb, but it looks like the analytics are waiting to see how Georgia Tech fares against ACC power Clemson this upcoming Saturday before they increase their chances back to where they were.

It will be important for Georgia Tech to get out to a fast start and play with a lead against Clemson, which gives their improving pass rush and defense a chance to wreck havoc and make Clemson QB Cade Klubnik uncomfortable. A lot is on the line for Georgia Tech as they look to advance to 3-0 on the season.

So what is ESPN’s FPI?  

"ESPN uses its FPI (Football Power Index) as an advanced analytical model to help look at matchups and predict outcomes. In ESPN's own words: "FPI is a predictive rating system designed to measure team strength and project performance going forward. The ultimate goal of FPI is not to rank teams 1 through 128; rather, it is to correctly predict games and season outcomes. If Vegas ever published the power rankings it uses to set its lines, they would likely look quite a lot like FPI."

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