ESPN's FPI Favors Georgia Tech in the Matchup Against Boston College

Georgia Tech is a five-point favorite going into tomorrow's game vs Boston College

Author:
Jackson Caudell
Publish date:
Oct 20, 2023 6:39 PM EDT

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You can count ESPN's FPI among the one's that think Georgia Tech is going to beat Boston College tomorrow and FPI thinks that Georgia Tech is going to win handily.

ESPN uses its FPI (Football Power Index) as an advanced analytical model to help look at matchups and predict outcomes. In ESPN's own words: "FPI is a predictive rating system designed to measure team strength and project performance going forward. The ultimate goal of FPI is not to rank teams 1 through 128; rather, it is to correctly predict games and season outcomes. If Vegas ever published the power rankings it uses to set its lines, they would likely look quite a lot like FPI."

The Yellow Jackets are currently five-point favorites at most sportsbooks, but ESPN's FPI sees Georgia Tech winning this game by ten points and they are giving Georgia Tech a 74.2% chance to win the game.

FPI is not the only analytical system to make the Yellow Jackets big favorites tomorrow. SP+ sees Georgia Tech winning by nine points tomorrow.

ESPN's Bill Connelly released his game projections for the upcoming week eight slate and he currently has Georgia Tech favored by nine over the Eagles and winning the game 32-23. He gives Georgia Tech a 71% chance to win the game.

So what exactly is SP+ and what goes into making these rankings? Here is how Connelly formulates his rankings in his own words:

"I base SP+ projections on three primary factors, weighted by their predictiveness:

1. Returning production. The returning production numbers are based on rosters I have updated as much as possible to account for transfers and attrition. The combination of last year's SP+ ratings and adjustments based on returning production make up about half of the projections formula

2. Recent recruiting. This piece informs us of the caliber of a team's potential replacements (and/or new stars) in the lineup. It is determined by the past few years of recruiting rankings in diminishing order (meaning the most recent class carries the most weight). Beginning this season, I am also incorporating transfers -- both the quality and the volume -- in a different way. After last season's transfer-heavy recruiting shift, I've got a bit more data for how to handle that. This piece makes up about one-third of the projections formula.

3. Recent history. Using a sliver of information from previous seasons (two to four years ago) gives us a good measure of overall program health. It stands to reason that a team that has played well for one year is less likely to duplicate that effort than a team that has been good for years on end (and vice versa), right? This is a minor piece of the puzzle -- only about 15% -- but the projections are better with it than without.

A reminder on SP+: It's a tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency. It is a predictive measure of the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football, not a résumé ranking, and, along those same lines, these projections aren't intended to be a guess at what the AP Top 25 will look like at the end of the year."