Georgia Tech vs NC State: What Do The Advanced Analytics Say About The Matchup

Georgia Tech is a favorite on the road against NC State

Oct 25, 2025; Atlanta, Georgia, USA; Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets head coach Brent Key on the sideline against the Syracuse Orange in the second quarter at Bobby Dodd Stadium at Hyundai Field. Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-Imagn Images | Brett Davis-Imagn Images

Georgia Tech is back in the spotlight this upcoming weekend and will play just its second game in primetime this season against NC State. With each victory that gets added to the win column, the more chances for Georgia Tech to play in prime windows with the most viewers. The Yellow Jackets will likely be favored in every matchup moving forward except when they play Georgia on a neutral field on November 28th.

According to ESPN Bet Sportsbook, the Yellow Jackets are a 6.5 favorite on the road in Raleigh on Saturday. ESPN’s FPI sees the Yellow Jackets with even better odds, giving Georgia Tech a 71.1% chance to defeat NC State. The Wolfpack are given just a 28.9% chance to win.

Georgia Tech comes in with its first 5-0 start in the ACC in program history. Their offense has been firing on all cylinders, and the defense has been holding its own, producing top numbers in major statistical categories, including red zone defense, defensive touchdowns, scoring defense, fumbles recovered, and third down defense. The Yellow Jackets rank top 50 in each of the aforementioned categories.

NC State is in a little bit of a rut after a 3-0 start to the season. The Wolfpack has lost four of its last five games. During that stretch, NC State has given up an average of 33.4 points per game. In their recent loss to Pittsburgh, they gave up 53 points and 529 total yards of offense. Defense has been an area of struggle for NC State in 2025. Their offense has been smoking hot, and their quarterback, CJ Bailey, has improved since his true freshman season in 2024. He will be one to watch on Saturday.

This is the 33rd meeting between NC State and Georgia Tech. The Yellow Jackets lead the all-time series 21-11 and have won four of the last five outings. The series spans back to 1918.

Can the Yellow Jackets Slow Down NC State Offense?

Oct 25, 2025; Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, USA; North Carolina State Wolfpack quarterback CJ Bailey (11) warms up before the game against the Pittsburgh Panthers at Acrisure Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-Imagn Images | Charles LeClaire-Imagn Images

Georgia Tech will face another high-octane offense, which is becoming a major theme in the ACC. However, the Yellow Jackets have handled that well this season and have taken care of business, leading to big performances from the defense and slowing down some of the conference’s elite. Head coach Brent Key talked about the offense the Yellow Jackets would face on Saturday.

"They run and throw and they've got really good players doing it. Their quarterback is a freak athlete, but not just an athlete. He's a super, super talented young man at quarterback. And I think you might remember his last year in the game here and how he was able to make plays with his feet, make plays with his arm. You know, they got a group of guys in front of them They, you know, they've had some injuries and whatnot across the board on both sides, but they play physical. They play tough. They're going to play for four quarters,”said Key.

NC State and Georgia Tech gave us a thriller in 2024, with Aaron Philo's game-winning touchdown being the final score of the game, lifting the Yellow Jackets to an improbable 30-29 win over the Wolfpack. Will this year’s matchup be another thriller?

What exactly is FPI though?

"ESPN uses its FPI (Football Power Index) as an advanced analytical model to help look at matchups and predict outcomes. In ESPN's own words: "FPI is a predictive rating system designed to measure team strength and project performance going forward. The ultimate goal of FPI is not to rank teams 1 through 128; rather, it is to correctly predict games and season outcomes. If Vegas ever published the power rankings it uses to set its lines, they would likely look quite a lot like FPI."

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