SP+ Predicts Final Score Between Georgia Tech and BYU in the Pop Tarts Bowl

Who does SP+ Project to win the Pop Tarts Bowl between Georgia Tech and BYU?

Oct 25, 2025; Atlanta, Georgia, USA; Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets head coach Brent Key runs with his team on the field before a game against the Syracuse Orange at Bobby Dodd Stadium at Hyundai Field. Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-Imagn Images | Brett Davis-Imagn Images

The Pop Tarts Bowl between No. 22 Georgia Tech and No. 12 BYU is one day away.

One of the most anticipated bowl games of the season, Georgia Tech is aiming to finish their season with 10 wins for the first time since 2014, finish the season ranked, and move to 2-1 in bowl games under Brent Key.

It won't be easy though. BYU is 11-2 and both losses have come against No. 4 Texas Tech, who is one of the most dominant teams in the country. They have a very physical team and will be looking to show that they were a team capable of being in the College Football Playoff.

Georgia Tech is a small underdog in the eyes of the oddsmakers and in the power ratings, including SP+. SP+ is projecting a 32-25 win for BYU and it gives the Cougars a 67% chance to win the game.

SP+ BOWL (AND ARMY-NAVY, AND CFP) PICKS

OU 24, Bama 21
A&M 29, Miami 26
Rebs 39, Wave 21
Ducks 34, Dukes 19
Arch 25, Underwood 24
Pitt 29, ECU 28 (gonna be wonderfully stupid, can't wait)

14 of 40 games proj. w/in 3 pts, 29 w/in one score. I'll take it.https://t.co/oNFJb9ec9k pic.twitter.com/iago4fTOeI

— Bill Connelly (@ESPN_BillC) December 8, 2025

What is SP+? Here is how ESPN analyst Bill Connelly describes it:

"In a single sentence, it's a tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency. I created the system at Football Outsiders in 2008, and as my experience with both college football and its stats has grown, I have made quite a few tweaks to the system.

SP+ is indeed intended to be predictive and forward-facing. It is not a résumé ranking that gives credit for big wins or particularly brave scheduling -- no good predictive system is. It is simply a measure of the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football. If you're lucky or unimpressive in a win, your rating will probably fall. If you're strong and unlucky in a loss, it will probably rise."

How do the teams matchup?

Nov 28, 2025; Atlanta, Georgia, USA; Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets quarterback Haynes King (10) passes the ball against the Georgia Bulldogs during the first half at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Dale Zanine-Imagn Images | Dale Zanine-Imagn Images

The bowl appearance is Georgia Tech’s third-straight and 48th all-time. The Yellow Jackets’ 48 bowl appearances are the 14th-most in college football history. Tech is making its third-consecutive bowl appearance for the first time since 2012-14. The Jackets are also tied for 13th all-time with 26 bowl/playoff victories and are 12th in NCAA Division I FBS history with a .553 postseason winning percentage (26-21).

Georgia Tech (9-3, 6-2 ACC) brings its best regular-season record since 2014 into the Pop-Tarts Bowl. The nine-win regular season is only the 16th in Tech’s 133-year football history.

BYU is 11-2 overall, with both of its defeats coming at the hands of No. 4 Texas Tech (once in the regular season and once in Saturday’s Big XII championship game).

The matchup is Georgia Tech’s first ranked-vs.-ranked bowl showdown since the No. 10/9 Yellow Jackets defeated No. 8 Mississippi State, 49-34, in the 2014 Orange Bowl.

Georgia Tech is making its third appearance in the game now known as the Pop-Tarts Bowl. The Yellow Jackets are 2-0 in the bowl, having defeated West Virginia, 35-30, in 1997 when it was known as the Carquest Bowl in Miami Gardens, Fla., and routed Syracuse, 51-14, when it was known as the Champs Sports Bowl in Orlando.

It will be the Jackets’ third all-time bowl appearance in the stadium now known as Camping World Stadium, as they topped Nebraska, 45-21, in the Florida Citrus Bowl on Jan. 1, 1991, to clinch the 1990 national championship, when the stadium was called the Florida Citrus Bowl.

This is going to be a great matchup of two teams that have similar identities when it comes to wanting to be physical on the lines of scrimmage and running the football. Expect a great matchup Saturday in one of the year's premier bowl games.