SP+ Predicts Georgia Tech vs Clemson Score

One of the most dangerous things for ACC teams since Brent Key took over has been being a double-digit favorite against the Yellow Jackets, especially at home. Key has done well as a road underdog, beating Pitt and North Carolina last season and Miami, Wake Forest, and Virginia this season and now his sights are set on getting Georgia Tech a win against Clemson for the first time since 2014.

This week, Clemson is favored by 14.5 or 15 points at most sportsbooks and Georgia Tech will get to test their success as a road underdog yet again.

While Clemson is favored by the oddsmakers, what do some of the analytics say about this matchup on Saturday?

ESPN analyst Bill Connelly and his SP+ system view the game similarly. SP+ has Clemson winning by 15 and the projected final score is 34-19. The Tigers are being given an 82% chance to win the game as well.

WEEK 11 SP+ PICKS

Mich 27, PSU 21 (21!)
FSU 33, Miami 20
Washington 34, Utah 23
Tenn 29, #Mizzou 26
UGA 34, Ole Miss 21
LSU 37, Florida 25
Oregon 41, USC 28

53% of lines within 2 points of SP+, 66% within 3 points, lol. That's unfair.https://t.co/fjsWyQPXfP pic.twitter.com/R3YB3lY3gW
— Bill Connelly (@ESPN_BillC) November 5, 2023

So what exactly is SP+ and what goes into making these rankings? Here is how ESPN's Bill Connelly formulates his rankings in his own words:

"I base SP+ projections on three primary factors, weighted by their predictiveness:

1. Returning production. The returning production numbers are based on rosters I have updated as much as possible to account for transfers and attrition. The combination of last year's SP+ ratings and adjustments based on returning production make up about half of the projections formula

2. Recent recruiting. This piece informs us of the caliber of a team's potential replacements (and/or new stars) in the lineup. It is determined by the past few years of recruiting rankings in diminishing order (meaning the most recent class carries the most weight). Beginning this season, I am also incorporating transfers -- both the quality and the volume -- in a different way. After last season's transfer-heavy recruiting shift, I've got a bit more data for how to handle that. This piece makes up about one-third of the projections formula.

3. Recent history. Using a sliver of information from previous seasons (two to four years ago) gives us a good measure of overall program health. It stands to reason that a team that has played well for one year is less likely to duplicate that effort than a team that has been good for years on end (and vice versa), right? This is a minor piece of the puzzle -- only about 15% -- but the projections are better with it than without.

A reminder on SP+: It's a tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency. It is a predictive measure of the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football, not a résumé ranking, and, along those same lines, these projections aren't intended to be a guess at what the AP Top 25 will look like at the end of the year."

The projections favoring Clemson is not surprising given their history over the past decade and the talent on the roster and Key talked about how Dabo Swinney and the Tigers have been the standard in the ACC and will be a tough team to beat:

"The first thing is focus on ourselves and prepare the right way, be the best version of ourselves this week, that is myself, coaches, everyone, have the best plan, the best plan of attack, the players believe in the plan, play fast. Going in there, it is a stadium, it has two end zones, two sidelines, 120 total yards, there is a big hill that people roll down on, kind of like last week, a grassy area, similar to last week, similar to Wake Forest, similar to the grassy area in the end zone, it gets loud. I think the only difference you will see is that we will prepare for crowd noise this week. Not just later in the week but every day we will have crowd noise, prepare for that to go into the game.

They are a good football team, a really good football team. I don't look at records, I look at film. There are things that Dabo is doing now to play to the strengths of his team. Don't forget who Dabo's college football coach was, he played for Coach Stallings if I am not mistaken. He knows how to win games that way too and their defense is... you want to talk about a standard, their defense is as good as anybody that you see in the country collectively.

They have good players and they have good players that are older and experienced and collectively and also have good players that are younger. Offensively, I think they are finding themselves an identity right now that is leading to success for them and led them to success last week."

Georgia Tech vs Clemson will kickoff at 12:00 p.m. on Saturday and be televised on ABC.

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