Updated Game-By-Game Win Probabilities Paint A Grim Picture For Georgia Tech

This was not the start that Brent Key had envisioned a few weeks ago.

Georgia Tech is sitting at 0-2 after the first two weeks of the season, and things have not looked good on either side of the ball. The Yellow Jackets have scored two offensive touchdowns in two games, have one of the worst run defenses in the country, and have had poor line-of-scrimmage play on both sides of the ball. The good news is that they have not begun ACC play yet, and there are 10 games left to play.

But their early struggles have sent them tumbling in the notable power rating systems, including ESPN's FPI (Football Power Index). Here is an updated look at the win probability from FPI for each remaining game of the season.

Game 3, vs Mercer: 93% win probability

Justice Haynes Georgia Tec — Sep 3, 2026; Atlanta, Georgia, USA; Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets running back Justice Haynes (22) rushes the ball against the Colorado Buffaloes in the first half at Bobby Dodd Stadium at Hyundai Field. Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Despite their struggles this season, Georgia Tech is seen as the far better team against the in-state Mercer Bears this Saturday. With the rough start to the season so far, it might be good for Georgia Tech to get a decisive win here.

FPI Record: 1-2

Game 4, at Stanford: 57% win probability

If Georgia Tech still hopes to make a bowl game, this is going to be a must win.

Stanford has started the season 1-1, beating Hawaii in week zero then losing to No. 5 Miami 45-6 at home in week one. They play well at home though and their defense has shown physicality and the ability to limit the run through two games. The Yellow Jackets have more talent, but this game looks more difficult than it did a couple of weeks ago.

FPI record: 2-2

Game 5, vs Duke: 42% win probability

This is another game that could decide Georgia Tech's bowl game hopes. If the Yellow Jackets can get to 2-2 before their bye week, they will have some momentum heading into their game against Duke.

Duke has been a pleasant surprise so far this season, beating Tulane and Illinois and having one of the best running backs in the country in Nate Sheppard. Brent Key is 3-0 against Duke as both the interim and full-time head coach at Georgia Tech and the Yellow Jackets have to find a way to get the win here against Manny Diaz's team. FPI does not think it will.

FPI record: 2-3

Game 6, at Virginia Tech: 22% win probability

Sep 12, 2026; Blacksburg, Virginia, USA; Virginia Tech Hokies quarterback Ethan Grunkemeyer (17) warms up before the game against the Old Dominion Monarchs at Lane Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brian Bishop-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Virginia Tech is having a nice start to the James Franklin era, though they have played a pair of overmatched opponents. Still, they have looked better than Georgia Tech and the fact that the game is in Blacksburg will give them the advantage. It would be huge if the Yellow Jackets could steal this game on the road, but FPI does not think that is very likely right now.

FPI record: 2-4

Game 7, vs Boston College: 74% win probability

As bad as Georgia Tech has looked this season, FPI still thinks they are a far better team than Boston College.

The Eagles were blown out by Cincinnati in week one of the season, but rebounded to take down Rutgers last Friday night. This is homecoming for Georgia Tech and they have to win this game in late October.

FPI record: 3-4

Game 8, at Pittsburgh: 18% win probability

FPI is not giving Georgia Tech much of a reason to win this game.

Pitt blew out Miami (OH) to open the season and then got by UCF in a tough weather situation. Their offense has looked excellent and given Georgia Tech's defensive struggles, that might be a tough matchup, not to mention the game is on the road.

FPI record: 3-5

Game 9, vs Louisville: 27% win probability

Louisville was thought to be one of the top contenders to make the ACC championship game this season, and even though they lost a close game to Ole Miss in week one, they have looked the part of an ACC contender so far, and if they can defeat SMU this weekend, they will be in the drivers seat to get to Charlotte.

Georgia Tech gets this game at home, but they will have to make a lot of improvement if they want to win this game. So far in his time at Georgia Tech, Brent Key is 0-2 against Jeff Brohm and Louisville.

FPI record: 3-6

Game 10, at Clemson: 33% win probability

Clemson has not looked good to start this season, and I think this is a winnable game for Georgia Tech, though they have not beaten the Tigers on the road since 2008. Given how both offenses have looked to start the season, this might be. low-scoring, ugly affair in Death Valley.

Game 11, vs Wake Forest: 49% win probability

This is another game that Georgia Tech needs to win if they hope to make a bowl game, but we will know by the time this game is played if that is a realistic probability. Wake Forest is 2-0 to start this season, with wins over Akron and Purdue, and Jake Dickert looks to have another disciplined, well-coached team at his disposal. The Demon Deacons have an explosive offense and disruptive defensive line that could give Georgia Tech trouble in this game.

Game 12, at Georgia: 3% win probability

FPI does not like Georgia Tech's chances to end their long losing streak to the Bulldogs. Under Brent Key, the Yellow Jackets have played Kirby Smart's team close, losing by single digit margins each year, but the odds are heavily in UGA's favor through the first couple of weeks of the season. Can Key have his team better by the time they go to Athens for the first time since the the eight overtime loss in 2024?

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