How Chet Holmgren fits in with the top three teams in the NBA draft
Chet Holmgren has given NBA scouts headaches for some time now. Ever since his senior year at Minnehaha Academy, the unicorn has showcased a unique skillset for someone of his stature that has never been seen before at the collegiate level. From the ball-handling skills of a guard to the shot-blocking instincts of a traditional center, there aren’t many 7-footers that play the game with such fluidity and smoothness. Factor in his ability to stretch the floor and blow by defenders with one super-sized step, he has just about every tool in the toolkit evaluators covet as the future of the league.
However, it’s hard not to think someone of his frame might struggle out of the gate in a more physical league. At less than 200 lbs., the concerns over whether he’ll have the same impact defensively that he did in college are warranted. It’s unlikely he’ll be guarding back-to-the-basket centers at the next level, nor will he be asked to operate out of the post on offense either. Pairing him with a complimentary frontcourt mate that can defend other big men and space the floor is key to maximizing what Holmgren can bring to the table, although that’s easier said than done.
Thus, the Chet Holmgren tug-of-war between talent and physical attributes will wage on until draft day. Should the latter prevail, there’s a chance he falls past the first pick and into the laps of either Oklahoma City or Houston. But if Orlando pulls the trigger, then count every Gonzaga fan a Magic fan as well once they see Holmgren and former high school teammate and Zag Jalen Suggs on the court together. As fun as that would be, Holmgren’s fit with a franchise and its commitment to developing him as a cornerstone piece to its success will ultimately tell the tale of his NBA career.
Here's a look at his fit with the top three teams in the NBA draft:
Orlando Magic
2021-22 lineup: G Cole Anthony, G Jalen Suggs, F Franz Wagner, F Wendell Carter Jr., C Mo Bamba
Man would this be fun. The Magic already boast a young core that finished top-10 in pace this last season and adding Holmgren to the mix would complete one of the fastest starting lineups in the league. Oh, and the Suggs-to-Holmgren reconnection is something every Zags fan can get behind, even if they never dawned the red, white and blue uniform in Spokane together.
For the Magic, though, adding Holmgren could serve as a necessity and luxury at the same time.
The frontcourt is certainly loaded, with seven players at 6-foot-10 or taller, but that isn’t to say Holmgren would be misused given the roster’s versatility. Carter Jr.’s ascension as a stretch-four and solid rebounder makes for a fine running mate, while Franz Wagner can contribute on the perimeter at 6-foot-10. Bamba’s progression last season provides promise as well, which gives Jamahl Mosley numerous options to build his ideal lineup.
With so much size already, it’s no surprise the Magic were top-5 in blocked shots per game this season, but that didn’t tell the full story. Orlando still finished in the bottom three in points allowed and overall defensive rating with Jonathan Isaac out for the last two seasons due to injury. His future with the team is clouded as of now, and with the potential intrigue of Holmgren as a perennial shot-blocker, the Magic are looking to solidify the defense any way possible.
It’s no secret Orlando likes to draft versatile and lengthy players who don’t quite fit into a specific position, and Holmgren is no different in that regard. With Bamba being a restricted free agent this summer, the door is open for another 7-footer to slide into that center position next to Carter Jr., who continues to improve as a shooter and is a plus-defender. How all these moving pieces would be arranged into a coherent lineup is another question, but that shouldn’t deter general manager John Hammond from passing on the player with arguably the highest ceiling in the draft.
Oklahoma City Thunder
2021-22 lineup: G Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, G Josh Giddey, F Luguentz Dort, F Darius Bazley, C Kenrich Williams
Few teams around the league have embraced tanking quite like the Thunder general manager Sam Presti, who sacrificed the current condition of the team for the potential of a better future. After trading past stars like Russell Westbrook, Paul George and Chris Paul, Presti now has 38 total picks over the next five seasons to bring his vision to fruition, and it all starts with the No. 2 and No. 12 pick in the 2022 draft. Depending on Orlando’s move at No. 1, the first stage of that rebuilding process could include a Gilgeous-Alexander and Holmgren tandem, along with the rest of the young nucleus that showed flashes together.
As expected, not much went in OKC’s favor in the 2021-22 season. Injuries didn’t bode well for an already depleted roster, and the lack of veteran leadership was apparent for the youngest team in the NBA. Growing pains will be unavoidable, and while the Thunder have a decent track record with developing its players, Holmgren’s fit early on is uncertain.
As it stands currently, Holmgren would come in as one of the best players on the roster, a heavy weight to carry around for a 20-year-old rookie. Unlike the Magic, the Thunder’s frontcourt is drastically thinner and undersized, with Aleksej Pokusevski and Mike Muscala being the only players taller than 6-foot-10. Williams and Bazley have yet to find their footing in the pros and are unlikely to garner starting minutes at the center spot in 2022-23.
That would leave Holmgren as the team’s most impactful big men right off the rip without much help to surround him with. Being thrusted into that role could hurt or enhance his development; he handled the transition to the college game well, but that doesn’t mean the jump to the pros will see similar results, especially for someone of his unique stature.
Still, the long-term outlook is favorable. It’s clear the Thunder are playing the long game with its young roster that continues to develop. With absolutely no pressure to win now, the expectations wouldn’t be as high for Holmgren to be a star right away, but he’d still receive a lot of playing time.
Houston Rockets
2021-22 lineup: G Kevin Porter Jr., G Garrison Matthews, G/F Jalen Green, F Jae’Sean Tate, C Alperen Sengun
Although unlikely, the Rockets’ war room would explode if Holmgren was still on the board at No. 3, and for good reason. From the intangibles to the style of play, there’s no other prospect that satisfies Houston’s need of a center who can space the floor quite like Holmgren does. Certain areas of the roster remain in question, but a trio of Porter Jr., Green and Holmgren would be a solid foundation to build around in the coming years.
Even in the post-Mike D’Antoni and Daryl Morey era, Stephen Silas and Rafael Stone have carried on the culture their predecessors established; just shoot. The Rockets were fourth in the NBA in 3-point attempts per game, shooting nearly 39 a night despite the lack of consistency. At 34.9%, they ranked in the bottom 10 in converting on those opportunities, largely due in part to the current construction of the frontcourt. Christian Wood’s game has expanded to beyond the arc, but Sengun’s lack of floor spacing hindered the offense, forcing the 6-foot-9 Wood to play most of his minutes at the center spot.
With Holmgren though, who shot 39% from deep at Gonzaga, Wood could shift back to his natural position at power forward to complete Houston’s ideal frontcourt. That does mean sacrificing the whole small-ball experiment, but with Holmgren’s versatility, that shouldn’t change the dynamic too drastically.
Rebounding was an issue for the Rockets last season anyway, allowing 11.2 offensive boards per game, fifth-worst in the NBA. While it remains to be seen if Holmgren can battle with NBA centers down low, he can still rip down a handful of boards off his reach and verticality.
There’s still a lot of uncertainty with Houston’s roster, especially with veterans John Wall, Eric Gordon and even Wood, but like Oklahoma City, there’s hardly any pressure to win right away. Porter Jr. and Green seem like the future backcourt going forward and pairing them with a big who compliments their game would be the next step in rebuilding. The odds Holmgren is there for the taking are slim, but crazier things have happened in the NBA draft.
