Gonzaga Bulldogs return home to face Cal State Bakersfield
It wasn't the most desirable of outcomes, but there was a lot to take away about the No. 11 Gonzaga Bulldogs following their run at the Maui Invitational.
Despite a fifth-place finish at the event, the Zags' (4-1) lone loss was against the tournament's eventual champion, No. 1 Purdue, in the opening round. For whatever a moral victory is worth in college basketball, there's no denying Mark Few's team handled the short turnarounds against Syracuse and UCLA to go 2-1 at arguably the most stacked multi-team event in the sport's history. Even if the pair of wins don't boost the resume quite like a win over a ranked team would have, there was a lot to build off moving forward.
For one, there are a lot of options on offense. A different player led Gonzaga in all three tournament games, capped off by a 32-point outing from Anton Watson. Before his career night it was Nolan Hickman who displayed his heightened level of assertiveness as a junior with 19 points against Syracuse. Graham Ike, albeit in a loss, was aggressive from behind the arc against Purdue as he finished with 14 points.
As many prognosticators expected, there are five players who average double figures in scoring. The balanced approach has boded well for the 13th most efficient offense in the country according to KenPom, though there are still a few kinks to work out.
Depth is at the forefront of the concerns, mainly in regard to the backcourt and wing positions. Ryan Nembhard was on the court for 115 of 120 possible minutes over the three-game stretch, while Hickman rested for just 10 total minutes. That backcourt duo, along with freshman Dusty Stromer, played all 40 minutes against UCLA and averaged over 32 minutes in Hawai'i, while Luka Krajnovic and Jun Seok Yeo combined for just 21 minutes across three games.
It has essentially been a seven-man rotation with Ben Gregg and Braden Huff coming off the bench, and while both have been spark plugs in different moments, they can't take the load off Hickman and Nembhard. Granted it would've been a lot for Krajnovic and Yeo to step up against Purdue, Syracuse and UCLA as newcomers who are still learning to translate their respective games to the NCAA level. But as Gonzaga breaks from its gauntlet of a schedule momentarily, the reserves should have an opportunity at valuable reps against Cal State Bakersfield on Tuesday.
The Roadrunners (3-3) enter the matchup as the 314th-ranked program in the country according to KenPom. Injuries derailed head coach Rod Barnes' squad last season, and while he brought in six newcomers and returned his starting backcourt, the rest of the Big West coaches picked Bakersfield to finish eighth in the conference for the second straight season. Though it's still early with time for the newcomers to gel, Bakersfield sits 10th in the league according to KenPom's metrics.
The Roadrunners' offense leans heavily on the efforts of 5-foot-10 senior Kaleb Higgins, who is back to lead the team in scoring after a knee injury limited him to 13 games last season. Averaging 16.3 points, Higgins does more than just stir the pot — with 89 field goal attempts, he's taken 36.5% of Bakersfield's shots this season, the 11th-highest rate of any player in the nation, and ranks 25th in percentage of possessions used. Not to mention he excels at getting to the free-throw line, as he's knocked down 20-of-25 attempts at the charity stripe.
But outside of its lead guard, the Roadrunners haven't found another consistent source of offense. The team has struggled shooting from distance with a 23.7% shooting clip from beyond the arc and has knocked down only 68.8% of its free-throw attempts. Overall, Bakersfield has shot 42.7% from the field and has yet to cross the 50% mark in any game this season.
On the defensive end, rebounding and 3-point shooting have been key issues for the Roadrunners. The only game they won the battle on the boards was against St. Katherine, an NAIA school. Redshirt junior forward Kancleris Modestas leads the team in rebounding at 5.8 boards per game, and outside of him and 6-foot-10 Ugnius Jarusevicius, Bakersfield's rotation doesn't include anyone taller than 6-foot-7.
That doesn't bode well against a Gonzaga team that has conquered the glass with its deep frontcourt. The Zags have outrebounded their opponents by an average of 13.4 boards and have yet to lose in that aspect in any game this season. They've taken advantage of their size whenever possible, and that's likely going to continue against the Roadrunners.
As a whole, Gonzaga's defense has taken a leap from where it was last season, with rebounding at the forefront. The Bulldogs rank 14th in defensive efficiency according to KenPom, an area they finished last season ranked 73rd and started 2023-24 at 36th. No opponent has shot better than 47% from the field and only two, Purdue and Yale, have scored over 70 points.
If the Bulldogs continue their run at stifling opposing offenses while controlling the pace themselves, there could be a few key reserves who get extended minutes down the stretch. As is usually the case with such tune-up games, Few and the coaching staff will create some opportunity for growth before heading back out on the road for a game against USC on Saturday.
