Gonzaga vs. Saint Mary's: What's on the line in Saturday's WCC showdown

Mark Few and the Gonzaga Bulldogs will have their 14-game winning streak tested in a major way on Saturday when the Gaels of Saint Mary's come to town.

Saint Mary's (19-3, 8-1) has won in Spokane each of the past two seasons, and will look to make it three against a Zags team that will not have starting forward and 17-point-per-game scorer Braden Huff, who is out until at least mid-February with a left knee injury.

It's still unclear how much Gonzaga will have their other frontcourt superstar, Graham Ike, who missed the past three games with ankle soreness but is expected to suit up on Saturday after practicing throughout the week.

A starting lineup including both Ike and Huff is what led the Zags to a 58-51 victory over the Gaels in the WCC Tournament championship last year, but this year it may require the team's small ball lineup - led by Jalen Warley, Tyon Grant-Foster, and Davis Fogle - to pick up a significant win over the Gaels.

Why it matters

In addition to being a longstanding rivalry - often considered among the best in college basketball - this Saturday's matchup between the Zags and Gaels will have significant ramifications for both teams in terms of conference standings and NCAA Tournament seeding.

Gonzaga sits atop the WCC at 9-0, while Santa Clara has a 0.5 game lead - and the tiebreaker - against Saint Mary's with a 9-1 record. A Gonzaga win ensures they remain in first place, and also ensures Saint Mary's, who would fall to 8-2, would remain in third place regardless of how the Santa Clara-LMU game, which takes place Saturday at 6:00 PM, plays out.

However, a win by the Gaels and a win by Santa Clara over LMU would put the Broncos at 10-1 and in first place in the WCC, while the Zags would drop into a tie with Saint Mary's for second place, and the Gaels would hold the tiebreaker with their head-to-head victory.

After Saturday, Gonzaga and Saint Mary's each have seven games left in league play - including another head-to-head matchup on Feb. 28 - so there would be plenty of time for those standings to change.

However, it has been a long, long time since a team other than Gonzaga or SMC was in first place in the WCC on Feb. 1, which is a distinct possibility if the Gaels take down the Zags.

NCAA Tournament ramifications

This game will also have significant ramifications on the NCAA Tournament resumes for both Gonzaga and Saint Mary's. While a loss doesn't harm Gonzaga too dramatically - especially since the selection committee will note Huff's absence - it could cost them a chance at a No. 1 seed and would make earning a No. 2 seed a more difficult endeavor.

Right now, most bracketologists have Gonzaga as a No. 3 seed. However, sliding down to a No. 4 or 5 seed would force the Zags to play one of the No. 1 seeds in the Sweet 16, significantly hampering the team's chances of making an Elite Eight or Final Four run.

For Saint Mary's, this game represents a rare opportunity to pick up a Quad 1 victory - a glaring hole in an otherwise solid resume for Randy Bennett's team. Currently, the Gaels are 0-2 in Quad 1 games, with losses coming to Vanderbilt in the Battle 4 Atlantis championship and on the road at Santa Clara. SMC has a 4-1 record in Quad 2 games, taking a loss to Boise State on a 'neutral site' in Idaho Falls.

A 4-3 combined record in Q1/Q2 games, with zero Quad 1 wins, is rarely seen on a resume for a team safely in the Field of 68. The Gaels really need at least one Quad 1 win to feel comfortable getting an at-large bid if they don't secure the WCC autobid, and right now the only two remaining Q1 games on the schedule are both against Gonzaga.

While winning at home is typically an easier task for the Gaels, that game on Feb. 28 could include a fully healthy duo of Ike and Huff, while Saturday's game in Spokane will have no Huff and Ike likely on a minutes restriction.

Simply put, this might be Saint Mary's best chance at securing their spot in the 2026 NCAA Tournament, while picking up a win over a heated rival in the final season where both teams are members of the West Coast Conference. The stakes are always big between these two programs, but it doesn't get much bigger than that for a late January WCC matchup.

The game will tip at 7:30 PM PT on Saturday, Jan. 31 and will be broadcast on ESPN.

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