Gonzaga vs. UCLA prediction: Anton Watson is X-factor in NCAA Tournament Sweet 16 matchup
The first weekend of March Madness was jam-packed with dramatic upsets, but two of the West Coast’s premier programs still made it through unscathed to advance to the Sweet 16.
Gonzaga and UCLA are four wins away from becoming the first western team to bring home the NCAA Tournament title since 1997. As both squads chase this historic feat, soon only one of them will remain in contention.
The third-seeded Zags and the second-seeded Bruins face off at 6:45 p.m. PST on Thursday at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas. It will be the third meeting between the teams in as many years.
Gonzaga defeated UCLA in the last two matchups, which included a showdown in the 2021 Final Four that ended on a half-court buzzer-beater from Jalen Suggs.
Six players who saw action in that game are expected be featured in this year’s Sweet 16: Drew Timme and Anton Watson for the Zags; Jaime Jaquez Jr., Tyger Campbell, Kenneth Nwuba and possibly David Singleton (sprained right ankle) for the Bruins.
“They got a lot of guys back from the Final Four game, especially with Tyger and Jaquez, so I’ve seen them play a lot,” Few said. “We played them last year and obviously played them the year before, so there’s definitely some familiarity.”
Jaquez and Campbell were key contributors in UCLA’s 68-63 win over seventh-seeded Northwestern in the second round on Saturday. Jaquez, a 6-foot-7 senior wing, had a team-high 24 points and eight rebounds while also adding four assists in 39 minutes.
Campbell was the team’s primary facilitator, dishing out seven assists without a single turnover. The 5-foot-11 senior guard shot 0-for-7 from the field, but still finished with 12 points, all of which came from the free-throw line.
The Bruins have also received significant production from freshman Amari Bailey, who averaged 15.5 points, 6.0 assists and 4.0 rebounds in his first two tournament games. Bailey’s ability to score off-the-dribble has provided a much-needed boost to UCLA’s offense, which has dealt with multiple injuries in their rotation.
The Bruins lost starter Jaylen Clark for the season after suffering a torn Achilles in the team’s final regular-season game. Singleton and Adem Bona (shoulder) are both day-to-day with injuries, but could potentially suit up on Thursday.
Gonzaga, on the other hand, has remained remarkably healthy. The same five players have started every game this season, with the exception being Senior Night when sophomore guard Nolan Hickman came off the bench so redshirt junior Malachi Smith could start.
The Zags punched their ticket to the Sweet 16 by defeating sixth-seeded TCU 84-81 on Sunday.
Timme led Gonzaga with 28 points on 12 of 21 shooting, to go along with eight rebounds and three assists.
“That’s what it takes to win,” Timme said. “You’ve got to put it all on the line, you can’t save yourself for the next round because there could be no next round. It’s pedal to the metal every time.”
Timme was the team’s only starter to score in double digits and shoot at least 50%, as Gonzaga struggled to get its other players going offensively. That includes Julian Strawther, who shot 3-for-10 despite coming off a 28-point showing in a first-round win over Grand Canyon.
When Timme and Strawther are both clicking on all cylinders, they’re the 1-2 punch for a squad that leads the country in scoring (86.3 points per game).
Gonzaga’s offensive firepower makes this matchup intriguing as UCLA boasts the nation’s top adjusted defensive efficiency (87.8). The Bruins have the size and length to make things difficult for Timme, which puts a lot of responsibility on Watson to step up as a reliable scorer.
Watson has done this numerous times this season, scoring at least 10 points and shooting 50% or better on 20 occasions. He’s also a defensive stopper who Gonzaga can place on Jaquez or another one of UCLA’s prolific scorers.
“He’s the X-factor of this whole thing,” Hickman said to The Athletic.
Assuming Watson can deliver as he typically does, the Zags should be able to keep their title hopes alive and advance to the Elite Eight.
The pick: Gonzaga 80, UCLA 72
