Pac-12 latest: Texas State heavy favorites to join, future media deal hangs in balance

The latest intel on potential Pac-12 memberships and media rights negotiations

Texas State Bobcats head coach Terrence Johnson signals to players during the first half against the Texas Longhorns at Moody Center. | Scott Wachter-Imagn Images

The clock is ticking on the Pac-12.

With eight full-time members locked in to join at the start of the 2025-26 academic year, the league is looking to add at least one more football-playing school in hopes of obtaining power conference status and the royalties that come with it.

An eighth FBS team would likely advance the Pac-12's media rights negotiations as well, making the next two weeks a pivotal stretch for the future of a conference that's trying to get its legs underneath it again after nearly collapsing for good just last summer.

Here's the intel on the latest going on with Gonzaga's future conference.

Texas State is considered the "favorite"

Texas State "is the heavy favorite" to receive a formal invitation from the Pac-12 within the next few weeks, according to ESPN. Both parties are financially motivated to strike a deal before July 1, as that's when the buyout for Texas State to leave the Sun Belt Conference doubles from $5 million to $10 million; the Pac-12 has its own deadline to have an eighth football school by 2026.

Other schools have been inquired about Pac-12 membership, but the Bobcats have been considered the frontrunners for months and should have voting support from the league's presidents, per ESPN. The Pac-12 has discussed Texas State during its virtual meetings and likes the idea of expanding its geographical footprint to include a school from Texas.

Once league presidents come together to vote on the matter, the logistics of revenue sharing come next. Texas State president Kelly Damphousse presumably expects a full share, based on a social media post of lobster bisque he made in response to speculation that Texas State would go to the Pac-12 for part of a media share. But with Gonzaga, a non-football school, set to become a full member of the conference in terms of media rights, the Bobcats' claim to a full share is reasonable.

The Bobcats are relatively new to high-level college athletics, having joined the FBS in 2012 and experiencing very little success until head coach G.J. Kinne’s arrival. Kinne has guided Texas State to consecutive eight-win seasons in the Sun Belt Conference, earning him a lucrative seven-year contract worth $2 million annually — one of the richest deals at the Group of 5 level.

On the hardwood, the Bobcats are coming off a 16-16 campaign (9-9 record in Sun Belt play) and finishing No. 194 on KenPom.com. They haven't made the NCAA Tournament since 1997.

Media rights deal coming soon?

The Pac-12's impending television deal isn't necessarily tied to having eight football members, but the timing of it all might align anyhow. Per ESPN, the league is expected to finalize a contract with three partners in the coming weeks.

The conference has a temporary deal to broadcast Oregon State and Washington State football games on CBS, The CW and ESPN, with contests against Mountain West teams streaming on TNT Sports or Fox, during the 2025 season.

A new TV deal won't financially stack up with what the league's consultants pitched to schools initially, per ESPN. Pac-12 schools were projected to earn north of $10 million in revenue originally, though the actual figure has been adjusted to reflect just under $10 million per school (which is still more than Mountain West schools receive).

Speaking of which, the Pac-12 and Mountain West are in the middle of a mediation process stemming from a lawsuit the Pac-12 filed in federal court that challenges the legality of a "poaching penalty" included in a football scheduling agreement it signed with the Mountain West in December 2023. That was to avoid paying the Mountain West the $55 million that the league believes it is owed as a result of its five schools (Boise State, Colorado State, Fresno State, Utah State, San Diego State) leaving for the Pac-12.

A football-only school in the mix?

The Pac-12 has reportedly considered bringing in Memphis as a football-only member, with its basketball and other Olympic sports joining the more geographically-friendly Big East. The idea has floated around since last fall, though such a move wouldn't be seriously considered until the Pac-12 secures its media rights deal and resolves its litigation with the Mountain West. Per ESPN, Memphis isn't expected to decide either way until the 2027-28 start date.

Memphis is coming off making $11 million in revenue as a full-time member of the American Athletic Conference. If the Tigers decide to split their athletic department in hopes of maximizing their value in two separate leagues, a departure from the AAC could knock over another set of conference realignment dominoes across the country.