Why Gonzaga is trending toward a No. 3 seed heading into Selection Sunday

Mark Few and the Gonzaga Bulldogs have spent the past four days sitting, waiting, and hoping for carnage in the power conference tournaments, with Selection Sunday now roughly 24 hours away.

So far, so good.

Gonzaga's chances of securing a No. 3 seed in the 2026 NCAA Tournament increased in the last 24 hours or so, thanks to key losses from competitors projected in the 2-4 seed range.

The most significant result on Friday came in the SEC when - shockingly - the No. 15 seed Ole Miss Rebels pulled off an upset over No. 2 Alabama, 80-79, to knock out the Crimson Tide in the quarterfinals. Alabama and Gonzaga were neck and neck between the 3-line and 4-line, and while this quad 2 loss may not knock 'Bama fully off the No. 3 line, it should keep Gonzaga ahead of them for seeding purposes.

A Big Ten quarterfinal battle between Purdue and Nebraska went the way of the Boilermakers, 74-58, with both teams sitting in that 2-3 seed range. Following the game, ESPN's Joe Lunardi had both teams still on the No. 3 line at No. 11 and No. 12, with Gonzaga moving up to No. 10. That means the only three seed 'ahead' of Gonzaga according to Lunardi is Illinois, who fell on Friday to Wisconsin, 91-88.

Another team right on Gonzaga's heels - the Kansas Jayhawks - fell on Friday as well, in particularly brutal fashion. Bill Self took the worst loss of his career in the Big Ten Tournament, losing to the Houston Cougars in a 69-47 drubbing. That ends the run for Kansas and takes a key team out of the running to pass Gonzaga.

The Bad News

Not every result was positive for the Zags on Friday, with Virginia, the No. 2 seed in the ACC Tournament, securing a comfortable 22 point win over No. 3 Miami to set up a matchup with Duke on Saturday. Should the Cavs win that game - which is plausible as Duke will be without starting center Patrick Ngongba and point guard Caleb Foster - they could jump back up into the No. 3 seed conversation.

Vanderbilt has a similar story, having beat Tennessee on Friday to set up a matchup with No. 1 Florida on Saturday. The Commodores already won that game as well, potentially putting themselves in the No. 3 seed conversation while making Florida sweat out if they will earn a second straight No. 1 seed or not on Sunday.

The good news for Gonzaga is that - even if Vanderbilt and Virginia move onto the 3-line - it could be at the expense of Nebraska and/or Purdue, keeping coach Few's team from falling. Purdue has a semifinal matchup against UCLA on Saturday, and if they fall to the Bruins Gonzaga will have even more security as a No. 3 seed.

Games to Watch

Other results that matter on Saturday - outside of Virginia vs Duke and Purdue vs UCLA - include Ole Miss vs Arkansas and UConn vs St. John's. Arkansas likely won't move all the way to the No. 3 line with a win over a mediocre Ole Miss team, but if they then beat Vanderbilt in the SEC championship it could help them climb - albeit likely at the expense of the Commodores.

Meanwhile, UConn is playing for a chance at a No. 1 seed, but St. John's could climb into the No. 4, and possibly No. 3, category if Rick Pitino's team can secure a Big East Tournament title.

Selection Sunday will begin on Sunday, March 15 at 3:00 PM PT on CBS.