The Unicorn has arrived: Chet Holmgren's fit with the Thunder
The Oklahoma City Thunder swung for the fences by selecting Gonzaga’s Chet Holmgren with the No. 2 pick in the 2022 NBA draft on Thursday. With his unique skillset and intangibles, the 7-footer was often regarded as the prospect with the highest ceiling of anyone else in the class. While Jabari Smith Jr. and Paolo Banchero could make an immediate impact on their respective rosters, the Thunder opted to bank on Holmgren’s upside as possibly the next generation-defining big men that truly revolutionizes how the center position is played for years to come.
But with those lofty hopes come unpleasant fears. His unorthodox frame drew durability concerns, even after a stellar year at Gonzaga in which his size was hardly a disadvantage. The NBA is a different animal of course and given that most prospects of his caliber don’t have these concerns, it’s hard to gauge just how impactful it will be in his career.
One thing is for certain though; Holmgren is one-of-a-kind, and those are the players teams love to build around.
The defensive presence he brings will be felt from day one. Holmgren’s 7-foot-6 wingspan allows him to, at the very least, alter any shot he contests and even deter opposing guards from driving into the paint. He plays with great verticality when challenging attempts at the rim and hardly fouls when doing so, a challenge for some shot blockers that get giddy and become undisciplined after one rejection. But the combination of length and basketball IQ immediately makes Holmgren a valuable asset on defense, even if he isn’t the most agile on the perimeter.
The Thunder desperately need more rim protection and size at the center position in general. Mike Muscala and Derrick Favors aren’t long-term options, and while Aleksej Pokusevski has been a fun player to watch, his skillset makes him more of a power forward in the league. With Holmgren there for the taking, the Thunder could get an immediate boost down low after being in the bottom half of the league in defensive rating.
And that’s not even accounting for his upside on offense, either.
Holmgren posted one of the most efficient seasons in college basketball last season while pulling off some jaw-dropping highlights along the way. Some discount his nation-leading 68% effective field goal percentage as just a product of Gonzaga’s offense, but don’t discount his superb shot selection and ability to knock down a shot from just about anywhere on the floor.
Holmgren knocked down 39% of his 3-point attempts, most of which as a trailer on the fastbreak or in catch-and-shoot spots, and converted 50% of his 2-point jumpers, albeit on lower volume.
Unlike some of the other top prospects in the class, Holmgren doesn’t need the ball to be effective on offense. He picks his spots wisely and has a feel for when he needs to be aggressive versus pulling back and operating within the offensive scheme. For the Thunder, that means more touches for ball-dominant guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who should have fun in pick-and-pop sets with Holmgren as a decent floor spacer.
As with all rookies, growing pains are inevitable, even for someone unique as Holmgren. Adding weight won’t be easy for someone of his size, but he clearly has enough “basketball strength” to be an excellent shot blocker and floor spacer off the rip. Offensively, he has a great feel for the game and can mesh within any system, but he’ll have to show more assertiveness in order to maximize his skillset. Luckily for Holmgren, the Thunder are in no rush to compete and have a coaching staff willing to develop young players for the future.
