What the Stats Say About the Houston Cougars Rivalry Matchup vs. The Rice Owls
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In less than 72 hours, the Houston Cougars and Rice Owls will face off in the final Bayou Bucket Classic for the foreseeable future. While we've highlighted key players for the Owls and discussed some keys to a Cougar win on Saturday, it's time that we finally talk about what the stats say about the two teams.
The history included in the Bayou Bucket Classic is one that favors Houston, both in recency and in the all-time record. The Cougars have dominated the series so far, taking home the Bayou Bucket in 34 of the 46 contests. In the last 10 years, the rivalry has included landslide victories, close shootouts, and even a game that reached double overtime.
As of right now, the matchup this weekend seems to heavily favor the Cougars. Given a 68.7% chance to win this weekend, many expect this game to be similar to last year's affair, where Houston dominated all four quarters, resulting in a 33-7 victory. But what do the stats say about the two teams in Week 2?
What the Stats Say About Houston
Last year, the Cougars missed bowl eligibility due to a dysfunctional offense that couldn't stay consistent on a weekly basis, leading to the firing of offensive coordinator Kevin Barbay. His replacement for the 2025 season, Slade Nagle, looks to bring some balance to a Cougar offense that should be dangerous on paper.
During the offseason, Fritz and his staff reconstructed the roster by using the transfer portal extensively. Players like Conner Weigman, Amare Thomas, and Tanner Koziol headlined the transfer portal class, which was ranked 27th in the country by 247Sports. The investment in that transfer portal overhaul has seemingly paid off for Fritz so far in the 2025 season.
Last Week Against Stephen F. Austin:
Started the season with a W.
— Houston Football (@UHCougarFB) September 1, 2025
Cinematic recap vs. SFA 📽️ pic.twitter.com/Q6cJLLVScY
- Conner Weigman: 15 for 24, 159 yards, 3 passing touchdowns
- Tanner Koziol: 7 rec, 63 yards, 1 touchdown
- Amare Thomas: 3 rec, 44 yards, 1 touchdown
On defense, several newcomers made a strong impression, reflecting one of Fritz and his staff’s offseason priorities; building depth in the secondary—an area that already showed clear improvement in the shutout in Week 1.
- C.J. Douglas: 3 total tackles, 1 interception
- Zelmer Vedder: 3 total tackles, 2 pass deflections
In their first game together as a group, it's safe to say that the Cougars have a clear advantage over the Owls based on how much depth they have on the roster.
What the Stats Say About Rice
Last year under head coach Mike Bloomgren, the Owls went 4-8 finishing 3-5 in the AAC. While the program ended 2024 in the bottom half of the conference, their season was highlighted by wins over UTSA and South Florida.
Scott Abell now takes the head coaching job at Rice after seven seasons with Davidson in the Pioneer Football League. In that time, Abell accumulated a record of 47-28, and was named the Pioneer Leage Coach of the Year twice while appearing in the FCS playoffs on three separate occasions.
In Rice's win against the Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns last weekend, we saw Coach Abell's run-heavy offense in its purest form.
Last Week Against Louisiana:
Quinton Jackson: 22 attempts, 119 yards, 1 touchdown
Daelen Alexander: 15 attempts, 74 yards
Chase Jenkins: 7 for 9, 45 yards
A notable first start for QJack!https://t.co/cJQLeTn7tV#WE pic.twitter.com/7nAROURzvQ
— Rice Football (@RiceFootball) September 1, 2025
While many, including Fritz and the coaching staff, are aware of the Owls and their rushing attack, there are still unknowns about Coach Abell's team after Week 1. Quarterback Chase Jenkins only threw 9 total passes in the squad's 14-12 win over Louisiana.
In 22 varsity games at Alief Taylor High School, Jenkins threw for over 4700 yards and 46 touchdowns. In that time, the redshirt sophomore only threw six interceptions.
Make no mistake—the Cougars hold the edge both on paper and after each team's Week 1 showing. Shutting out any opponent is no small task, even if Stephen F. Austin isn’t a Power Four program. Still, questions remain about how the Owls will look to challenge Houston’s formidable secondary this weekend.
