3 Bold Predictions for Illinois Basketball at Michigan

In the offseason, Illinois coach Brad Underwood spoke often about his club's grueling strength of schedule for the 2024-25 season, reasoning that a few "dings" along the way were the cost of doing business. To get where they wanted to go, the Illini needed to walk through fire to forge their identity and be prepared the games that really mattered.

And here we are.

Illinois (18-11, 10-8 Big Ten) has likely done enough to qualify for the NCAA Tournament, but no one was throwing around the word "likely" months ago when discussing an Illini team coming off an Elite Eight appearance and replenished by a batch of ridiculously talented newcomers. Underwood and company need wins in their next two games to be certain of their postseason worthiness in the eyes of the NCAA selection committee.

It starts against Michigan (22-6, 14-3) on Sunday in Ann Arbor (2:45 p.m. CT, on CBS), where Illinois will face some unique challenges but may be more ready to face them than it has been since early January. Time to harness some of those hard-knock lessons from the past few months and deliver them back in kind. Here's how we see that unfolding against the Wolverines:

3. Illinois will shoot at least 60 percent on twos

The Illini haven't applied themselves consistently in this regard, but they've logged enough games exhibiting reasonable shot selection that it's now or never: Against Iowa, they shot 67.7 percent on twos, mostly for two reasons: 1) They didn't neglect center Tomislav Ivisic inside, and 2) they used the threat of the three to set up drives and passes for high-percentage buckets in the paint.

Michigan is a better defensive team than Iowa, and its two 7-footers have the potential to clog things up inside. Which is why the same mindful, meticulous approach is needed: Fire without conscience from beyond the arc, and the Illini run a big risk of shooting themselves out of Sunday's game (a movie we've watched many times this season). Force dribble drives and post-ups in tough matchups, and the results won't be much better (as we saw against Duke). But patience, ball fakes, off-ball movement and fluid passing gets the Illini over 60 percent on two-point field goals – and that scores them the upset at Crisler Center.

2. The Illini will mix ball-screen coverages against Michigan

Against the Hawkeyes, for the first time all season, Illinois eschewed its regular drop coverage on ball screens and implemented a hedge that puts some extra pressure on its bigs but gives some relief to its guards and helps defend against pick-and-pops, which have more than occasionally burned the Illini.

Both of Michigan's 7-foot starters, Vladislav Goldin and Danny Wolf, are threats from three-point range. But Wolf shoots them at volume, whereas Goldin lines them up only when wide open. Don't be surprised if the Illini check Wolf with Ben Humrichous, Tre White and even occasionally 6-foot-3 Kylan Boswell, while regularly hedging on his ball screens. Against Goldin? Ivisic, finally moving beyond the effects of a recent ankle sprain, will need to be nimble and focused – picking up Wolverines ball-handlers higher in drop coverage while also keeping Goldin from getting clean looks. Goldin may also see some random hedging just to throw him a bit. Illinois will need to be crafty and communicative to sneak away with a win.

1. The Illini will go as Will Riley goes

We aren't downplaying the quality of Wolverines coach Dusty May's scouting reports, but Michigan will have to pick its poison against Illinois. Ivisic and Kasparas Jakucionis are too dangerous not to be the focus of an opponent's defense, and snipers Humrichous and Jake Davis must be accounted for on the perimeter whenever they check in.

That should leave a lot of open space and no comfortable matchup for May to go to against Will Riley. Although he has been up and down this season, Riley has cracked double-figures scoring in eight of his past nine games – and 15 points or more in five of nine. He can be a deadly three-point shooter, but he is starting to crack the code on using that to gain an advantage going to the rim. Guards Roddy Gayle Jr. and Nimari Burnett – both 6-foot-5 – are the best the Wolverines have to throw at him, but Riley eats against smaller defenders who lack sufficient help. If Riley scores 15 on Sunday, the Illini have a chance. If he scores 20, they win, heading into Thursday's Purdue game on a meaningful win streak and with serious momentum.

3 Bold Predictions for Illinois Basketball at Michigan

3. Illinois will shoot at least 60 percent on twos

2. The Illini will mix ball-screen coverages against Michigan

1. The Illini will go as Will Riley goes

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