Big Ten Final Standings Projection: Has Illinois Emerged as the Favorite?

Is Illinois or Michigan the frontrunner in the Big Ten title race? Where do Purdue and Nebraska land? We project the top-five final standings below.

Dec 9, 2025; Columbus, Ohio, USA; Illinois Fighting Illini head coach Brad Underwood reacts to a call during the first half against the Ohio State Buckeyes Value City Arena. Mandatory Credit: Joseph Maiorana-Imagn Images | Joseph Maiorana-Imagn Images

It’s nearing mid-February, we’re already well past the halfway mark of the 2025-26 campaign and we’re closing in on the final stretch of conference play. In the Big Ten, it appears to be a two-horse race at this point (between Michigan and Illinois) for the top spot, but the battle for a double bye in the conference tournament (top four slots) remains relatively wide open.

Even Iowa, which is 7-4 in Big Ten play and eighth in the league standings, still controls its own fate, as only 1.5 games separate Michigan State (9-3 and fourth in the Big Ten) and the Hawkeyes. 

With all of that in mind, Illinois on SI is making its predictions for how the Big Ten standings will shake out, focusing strictly on the top five. 

Editor’s note: records through Feb. 5

Projecting the final Big Ten standings: Illinois or Michigan at the top?

Jan 17, 2026; Champaign, Illinois, USA; Illinois Fighting Illini head coach Brad Underwood before the first half against the Minnesota Golden Gophers at State Farm Center. Mandatory Credit: Ron Johnson-Imagn Images | Ron Johnson-Imagn Images

No. 5: Michigan State (9-3 Big Ten)
Final projection: 14-6

Jan 30, 2026; East Lansing, Michigan, USA; Michigan State Spartans head coach Tom Izzo during the second half against the Michigan Wolverines at Jack Breslin Student Events Center. Mandatory Credit: Dale Young-Imagn Images | Dale Young-Imagn Images

In the midst of a downward spiral – a trend we expect to continue on Saturday night vs. Illinois – Michigan State is reeling. After falling to Michigan at home, the Spartans were knocked off by Minnesota – a game headlined by Jeremy Fears Jr.’s cringey technical foul and head man Tom Izzo’s postgame reaction.

Expect the Spartans, who are again an exceptional defensive unit and dominant on the glass, to tread water over the final stretch of the regular season, taking down the opponents they should but dropping games to the cream of the crop, including Illinois (at home), a road contest at Purdue and a rematch at Michigan.

No. 4: Nebraska (9-2 Big Ten)
Final projection: 16-4

Feb 1, 2026; Lincoln, Nebraska, USA; Nebraska Cornhuskers head coach Fred Hoiberg walks onto the court before the game against the Illinois Fighting Illini at Pinnacle Bank Arena. Mandatory Credit: Dylan Widger-Imagn Images | Dylan Widger-Imagn Images

On a two-game skid after rattling off 20 straight wins to open the season, Nebraska is battling its first adversity of the season. We expect the Cornhuskers to thrive in the face of it.

Extremely disciplined on defense and well-connected on offense, with a variety of weapons – wings Pryce Sandfort and Braden Frager, plus big man Rienk Mast, to name a few – Nebraska is the real deal. Nevertheless, we expect a home loss to Purdue (more on that shortly), along with a silp at UCLA – which has been fantastic at home this year.

No. 3: Purdue (8-3 Big Ten)
Final projection: 16-4

Purdue Boilermakers head coach Matt Painter talks to Purdue Boilermakers guard Braden Smith (3) Friday, Feb. 7, 2025, during the NCAA men’s basketball game at Mackey Arena in West Lafayette, Ind. | Alex Martin/Journal and Courier / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Braden Smith may not be the frontrunner for Big Ten Player of the Yea award at this exact moment, but he is the best player in the conference. And if Matt Painter isn’t the best head coach in the league, he’s certainly on the very short list of that discussion.

With Smith pushing all the right buttons offensively and Painter rallying the troops on the other end, expect the experienced Boilermakers to fly through the remainder of their conference slate, claiming resume-building wins at Nebraska and at home against Michigan and Michigan State. That said, Purdue won’t be invincible. We expect the Boilers to drop one more outing: an overlooked matchup at Iowa.

No. 2: Michigan (11-1 Big Ten)
Final projection: 17-3

Michigan head coach Dusty May reacts to a play against Michigan State during the first half at Breslin Center in East Lansing on Friday, Jan. 30, 2026. | Junfu Han / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

A nearly flawless club, Michigan has great size and length, solid shooting across the board (with some sharpshooters sprinkled in), and head man Dusty May has meshed all the pieces tremendously well. 

Yet even as they boast perhaps the highest ceiling in the country, the Wolverines are prone to droughts – and, occasionally, extremely off nights for a full 40 minutes. They’re capable of playing – and beating – anyone at any location, but they aren’t bulletproof. Michigan struggled at Penn State (winning by two) and was never comfortable at Washington or Oregon. With away trips at Purdue and Illinois still on the docket, the Wolverines appear in line to add two more losses on the campaign.

No. 1: Illinois (11-1 Big Ten)
Final projection: 18-2

Feb 1, 2026; Lincoln, Nebraska, USA; Illinois Fighting Illini head coach Brad Underwood walks onto the court before the game against the Nebraska Cornhuskers at Pinnacle Bank Arena. Mandatory Credit: Dylan Widger-Imagn Images | Dylan Widger-Imagn Images

Similar to Michigan, Illinois has exceptional size at all positions, but the Illini separate themselves with elite shooting from their bigs. And at the level the defense has recently been operating (allowing 74 total points over the past three halves), Brad Underwood’s club doesn’t just have a sky-high ceiling – but also a floor that isn’t far below it.

All of this comes with an important caveat: This is the Big Ten. It should be clear by now that no one is safe. Even the blazing-hot Illini will drop one – and we expect it to come on the back end of their West Coast road trip against UCLA.