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Staff Picks: Who Wins No. 5 Illinois vs. No. 10 Michigan State?

The Illini (20-3, 11-1 Big Ten) will tangle with Spartans (19-4, 9-3) on Saturday in East Lansing. Who does our Illinois on SI staff pick to win?
Jason Langendorf|
Feb 15, 2025; Champaign, Illinois, USA; Michigan State Spartans forward Jaxon Kohler (0) and Illinois Fighting Illini center Tomislav Ivisic (13) battle for position during the first half at State Farm Center. Mandatory Credit: Ron Johnson-Imagn Images
Feb 15, 2025; Champaign, Illinois, USA; Michigan State Spartans forward Jaxon Kohler (0) and Illinois Fighting Illini center Tomislav Ivisic (13) battle for position during the first half at State Farm Center. Mandatory Credit: Ron Johnson-Imagn Images | Ron Johnson-Imagn Images

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Illinois Fighting IlliniMichigan State Spartans

Illinois' 2025-26 men's basketball team is a vastly different one than it was a year ago, but the Illini's few remaining holdovers will almost certainly fill in the newbies about last January's 80-78 indignity in East Lansing, Michigan, ahead of Saturday's return trip to the Breslin Center to take on Michigan State.

Kasparas Jakucionis fouling out in eight minutes? A five-point second-half lead that vanished among a flurry of questionable whistles and non-calls? Tomislav Ivisic and Ben Humrichous, among others, undoubtedly still feel the sting, and they figure to have this Illini group (20-3, 11-1 Big Ten) worked into a proper lather to return some of that pain to the Spartans (19-4, 9-3) on Saturday (7 p.m. CT, FOX).

Meanwhile, there's plenty going on in the here and now to otherwise keep both teams occupied: Fifth-ranked Illinois has been going streaking through everybody's quad – to the tune of 11 straight wins – while No. 10 MSU (which has lost back-to-back games) will be trying to avoid falling into a full-blown tailspin. Our crack Illinois on SI staff sorts out the matchup and makes its picks below:

Jason Langendorf

The Illini will be trying to shake off three straight defeats at the hands of the Spartans and six losses in their past seven games at the Breslin Center – and they just may have the formula to make it happen. Jeremy Fears Jr. wants to knife into the lane and pick-and-roll opponents to death, but Illinois' interior size and zone looks are going to make that exceedingly difficult. Meanwhile, as physical and cohesive as MSU's defense can be, there's no antidote to the quality and range of all the Illini's shooters, who are averaging 12.5 threes on 37.8 shooting during the win streak.

Prediction: Illinois 71, Michigan State 67

Steve Greenberg

The Spartans have “little” guys – Jeremy Fears Jr., Coen Carr – who, in theory, should be able to hurt the Illini defense with their quickness and athleticism. That said, Team Tall has held up pretty well on D without Kylan Boswell, and there’s zero question the Illini have the edge over the can’t-shoot Spartans offensively. As well as the visitors are playing, it should add up to another "W."

Prediction: Illinois 73, Michigan State 66

Jackson Langendorf

Michigan State is the typical Tom Izzo-led club: defense-oriented, terrific on the glass and spearheaded by a gritty point guard (Jeremy Fears Jr. is doing the honors). But the Spartans are in the midst of their lowest point of the season. Losers of back-to-back games, MSU is struggling – even defensively. Meanwhile, Illinois is red hot and operating like a well-oiled machine on both ends. Michigan State at home, with Izzo at the helm, is always going to have a shot. But this is Illinois' game to lose.

Prediction: Illinois 78, Michigan State 72

Pranav Hegde

It’s never comfortable walking into East Lansing to face a good team coming off not one, but two losses, and Michigan State will be desperate to respond. The Breslin Center is one of the best environments in college basketball and can turn games into rock fights in a hurry. Still, this Illini team feels different. With a historic offense and multiple shot-makers, Illinois is going to make it very hard for a reeling Spartans offense to keep pace for 40 minutes.

Prediction: Illinois 76, Michigan State 68

Jared Shlesky

Illinois is rolling and freshman Keaton Wagler is playing better than just about anyone in the country. Going against both would be a major mistake, which is why I'm taking the Illini despite their being a road underdog Saturday against Michigan State. To top it off, MSU has lost back-to-back games and Fears is making headlines for all the wrong reasons after receiving a technical foul for "inadvertently" kicking Minnesota forward Jaylen Crocker-Johnson in the groin Wednesday.

Prediction: Illinois 85, Michigan State 80

Jack Ankony

Michigan State is desperate for a win to stay in the Big Ten title race after back-to-back losses. But the Illini might be playing the best basketball of anyone in the country, so they’ll find a way to win late with advantages at a few guard and wing spots. It won’t be without battling through a physical effort from the Spartans and a raucous home crowd, though.

Prediction: Illinois 73, Michigan State 72

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Jason Langendorf
JASON LANGENDORF

Jason Langendorf has covered Illinois basketball, football and more for Illinois on SI since October 2024, and has covered Illini sports – among other subjects – for 30 years. A veteran of ESPN and Sporting News, he has published work in The Guardian, Vice, Chicago Sun-Times and many other outlets. He is currently also the U.S. editor at BoxingScene and a judge for the annual BWAA writing awards. He can be followed and reached on X and Bluesky @JasonLangendorf.

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