Can Illinois Still Earn a No. 1 Seed in the NCAA Tournament? What Needs to Happen

Are the Illini still able to work themselves into one-seed territory? We take a close look and detail what must happen ahead of the Big Dance.

Mar 23, 2025; Milwaukee, WI, USA; Illinois Fighting Illini head coach Brad Underwood reacts during the second half in the second round of the NCAA Tournament against the Kentucky Wildcats at Fiserv Forum. Mandatory Credit: Benny Sieu-Imagn Images | Benny Sieu-Imagn Images

Every Division I college basketball program, in theory, is aiming for the No. 1 overall seed heading into the NCAA Tournament. The idea is that the designation gives a club the “easiest” path from the Round of 64 to the national championship game. For five-loss Illinois (21-5, 12-3 Big Ten), that goal is almost certainly off the table. 

But what about the other three top seeds? For now, Illinois sits between the two- and three-seed lines, based on various Bracketology projections. Do the Illini have a shot – even a slim one – at moving up to take a one seed into the Big Dance? Let's take a look:

Illinois' advanced metrics resume after win over Indiana

Feb 15, 2026; Champaign, Illinois, USA; Illinois Fighting Illini guard Kylan Boswell (4) drives the ball against Indiana Hoosiers guard Conor Enright (5) during the first half at State Farm Center. Mandatory Credit: Ron Johnson-Imagn Images | Ron Johnson-Imagn Images

After its 20-point victory over Indiana on Sunday, here is where Illinois sits in the key metrics:

NET: No. 5

KenPom: No. 6 (same exact adjusted efficiency as No. 5 Florida)

BartTorvik: No. 5

These analytics tools – all three of which hold heavy sway when the selection committee gets together come March – currently put the Illini in the two-seed range. The metrics, however, aren’t the only difference-makers on Selection Sunday.

Recent performance and overall momentum heading into the NCAA Tournament also plays a massive role. With that in mind, and considering how close Illinois currently appears to be (from a metrics standpoint) to a one seed, the Illini may still have a puncher’s chance. Here are the non-negotiables:

How Illinois can still earn a one seed in the NCAA Tournament

Nov 14, 2025; Champaign, Illinois, USA; Illinois Fighting Illini head coach Brad Underwood greets the crowd before the tip of the game with the Colgate Raiders at State Farm Center. Mandatory Credit: Ron Johnson-Imagn Images | Ron Johnson-Imagn Images

1) Win out in the regular season

Illinois has just five remaining contests on the regular-season schedule. A matchup at UCLA (one loss on its home floor) remains on the docket, as does a home game against Michigan (one loss all season). Both are games the Illini are more than capable of winning, but they’re hardly overwhelming favorites in either – and it may even be the Wolverines’ game to lose in the latter matchup.

2) Make a run to the Big Ten Tournament title game

In their perfect world, the Illini win the conference tournament. But even a run to the title game should be enough to convince the committee that Illinois is playing its best basketball of the season – especially if Brad Underwood’s club closes out the regular season without another falter.

3) Help from the rest of the country

Feb 15, 2026; Champaign, Illinois, USA; Illinois Fighting Illini head coach Brad Underwood before the first half against the Indiana Hoosiers at State Farm Center. Mandatory Credit: Ron Johnson-Imagn Images | Ron Johnson-Imagn Images

Winning is of the utmost importance – and it’s the only real control the Illini have over their own fate. But as they stand on the outside looking in at a one seed, Illinois may need to see a few squads ahead of it fall to get over the top.

In all likelihood, Michigan, Duke and Arizona (barring an unforeseen meltdown from any of the three) will lay claim to a one seed in the Big Dance. That leaves just one spot up for grabs.

A handful of clubs remain in contention for that final one seed, but UConn and Houston are the two with an upper hand on Illinois. Fortunately for the Illini, the Cougars have to avoid a handful of land mines to win out. Their upcoming three-game stretch could not be more dangerous: at Iowa State, against Arizona and at Kansas. Houston almost certainly loses at least one of those – and if not, the Cougars deserve the No. 1 seed anyhow.

Meanwhile, UConn, which has been sleepwalking through a down Big East slate, should be challenged only at Villanova and at home against St. John’s. Considering the Huskies’ win over the Illini in November, Illinois’ one-seed aspirations hinge heavily on someone else tripping up Dan Hurley and his crew along the way.

Circling back to our question: Is a one seed still attainable for Illinois? Yes, technically, it is. But do the Illini need to consistently operate at a high level for the remainder of the campaign and have some good fortune on their side? Without a doubt.