ESPN Analytics Pick the Favorite in Illinois vs. Texas Tech: Fair or False?

The Illini face the Red Raiders in a battle of top-25 foes in Champaign on Tuesday night. Who is the favorite?

Jan 14, 2025; Bloomington, Indiana, USA; Illinois Fighting Illini head coach Brad Underwood during the first half against the Indiana Hoosiers at Simon Skjodt Assembly Hall. Mandatory Credit: Robert Goddin-Imagn Images | Robert Goddin-Imagn Images

Including Illinois’ exhibition game against Illinois State, we’ve seen the 2025-26 Illini squad in action three times thus far – each of which have been encouraging outings.

Highlights of our 113-70 victory at State Farm Center over Florida Gulf Coast. pic.twitter.com/kyLTxFlAwM

— Illinois Men's Basketball (@IlliniMBB) November 8, 2025

But notwithstanding the closed-door scrimmage against Florida – which we only saw glimpses of – we have yet to watch the Illini face off against a team that may pose them a true challenge.

No. 10 Texas Tech (2-0) is set to change that on Tuesday night. Texas Tech-Illinois – a battle of two top-25 teams (the Illini are ranked No. 17) – is a mathchup the college basketball world is eager to see.

You're booked and busy Tuesday!

See you HERE for this ranked matchup! pic.twitter.com/B9kBNFtsbM

— Illinois Men's Basketball (@IlliniMBB) November 8, 2025

It will be a litmus test for both teams, revealing just how advanced each squad is at this early point of the season – and perhaps hint at how bright their futures may be.

So, which is the favorite? Not that the AP poll – especially at this point in the season – holds much value, but the Red Raiders are ranked higher, while the Illini are the home team. It feels, on paper, as though it’s a coin flip of a contest. But ESPN’s analytics have a different perspective.

ESPN predicts Illinois-Texas Tech

Texas Tech players Christian Anderson (4) and JT Toppin react to a play against Sam Houston during a nonconference men's basketball game, Friday, Nov. 7, 2025, at United Supermarkets Arena. | Nathan Giese/Avalanche-Journal / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

According to ESPN’s metrics, the home squad is a fairly heavy favorite. Illinois is given a 68.7 percent chance of successfully defending its home floor. ESPN’s Basketball Power Index (BPI) lists the Illini as the 11th-best team in the nation, while the Red Raiders land at No. 18.

Toss in home-court advantage, and Illinois quickly becomes the favorite by a solid margin – at least in the eyes of the BPI metric.

Is it a fair assessment?

Both Illinois and Texas Tech are undefeated through two games, but neither has been tested by any sort of noteworthy opponent. Sure, each squad's early-season matchups offer a vague idea of how good they are, but it’s difficult to know what Tuesday night holds in store, as neither has faced a Power 5 foe yet.

That said, based strictly on what little we have seen, the Illini have been extremely impressive. The Red Raiders, specifically their duo of guard Christian Anderson and forward JT Toppin, have also been fairly dominant, and will create problems for this Illinois defense, which has looked unexpectedly stellar through the early stages of the year.

JT Toppin looked dominant in his season debut for @TexasTechMBB 😤

31 PTS | 14 REB | 10-19 FG pic.twitter.com/JEdVD2w9Q9

— NCAA March Madness (@MarchMadnessMBB) November 8, 2025

All told, between the location of the outing and the Illini’s near-perfect performances thus far, it’s more than fair to predict them to have an almost 70-percent chance of staving off the visitors.