ESPN's BPI Analytics Predicts Outcome of Illinois Basketball vs. No. 18 Purdue

The numbers have been crunched, and the metrics expect the Illini to take down the Boilermakers on Friday night

Feb 22, 2025; New York, NY, USA; Illinois Fighting Illini guard Kasparas Jakucionis (32) at Madison Square Garden. Mandatory Credit: Wendell Cruz-Imagn Images | Wendell Cruz-Imagn Images

Last Sunday, ESPN’s Basketball Power Index gave Illinois (19-11, 11-8 Big Ten) just a 41.0 percent chance of defeating then-No. 15 Michigan on the road. But the Illini beat the odds in convincing fashion, cruising to a 93-73 victory on the road.

On Friday, when Illinois takes on No. 18 Purdue at the State Farm Center (7 p.m. CT, on FOX), the roles will be reversed. Playing at home and assigned a 59.6 percent winning probability, the Illini will be hoping this time that the numbers hold up. 

Defending State Farm Center one more time.

📅 March 7
🆚 No. 19 Purdue
🧡 Senior Day Ceremony at 6:35 p.m.
⏰ 7 p.m. CT
📍 @statefarmcenter
📺 FOX
🎟 https://t.co/4rNQlQEC1H pic.twitter.com/uQHwot4P6i

— Illinois Men's Basketball (@IlliniMBB) March 6, 2025

With Illinois' home loss to Big Ten bottom feeder USC in early January (despite a 90.5 percent winning probability) and a more recent home defeat against Michigan State (after being given a 65.6 percent chance to win), the Illini haven’t always done their best work in their own building this season. 

But working in their favor is an opponent that has been uncharacteristically average on the road for a Purdue squad – the Boilers have fallen in each of their last three outings outside Mackey Arena.

Still, if it's a Matt Painter-coached team, it's dangerous on any floor. Earlier this season, Purdue traveled west to Eugene, Oregon, for a matchup with the then-No. 13 Ducks, and took them down 65-58 on the road despite ESPN’s metrics favoring Oregon.

For the Boilers to overcome the odds and add another Big Ten road victory to their resume later this week, they will likely need a scorching-hot showing from beyond the arc and yet another marquee performance from star guard Braden Smith.

But if the Illini can rein in Smith and the Boilers' bombers while crashing the offensive glass with five bodies – Illinois has significant size and athleticism advantages in this matchup – they should prove ESPN's BPI prophetic once more.

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