What NCAA Tournament Seed Should Illinois Basketball Earn?

If the Illini keep winning and the selection committee walks as it talks, current projections don't do Illinois justice

Feb 25, 2025; Champaign, Illinois, USA; Illinois Fighting Illini head coach Brad Underwood reacts with player Illinois Fighting Illini guard Tre White (22) during the second half at State Farm Center. Mandatory Credit: Ron Johnson-Imagn Images | Ron Johnson-Imagn Images

At this time of year, everyone's a bracketologist. But because there are still regular-season and conference tournament games left to play before NCAA Tournament seedings are announced March 16, and because only the dozen members of the selection committee have an actual say in how the brackets shape up, speculation on the subject is all academic.

Well, consider school to be in session.

Most of the prognosticators agree that Illinois, at present, would be roughly deserving of a 7 seed. ESPN's Joe Lunardi, for instance, bumped the Illini from an 8 to a 7 seed only days ago. On3 has Illinois as a 7. College basketball newsletter TeamRankings squeezes the Illini into the last 7 seed on its board.

But, frankly, the math isn't mathing. We know from years of members saying as much that the committee values current form and resilience in selecting at-large members and the seeding process. Has any NCAA team been more resilient than these Illini, who began the season 12-3 before injuries to Kasparas Jakucionis, Tomislav Ivisic and Morez Johnson Jr. began piling up and a flu bug dragged nearly half the locker room to its knees.

Since most of the dust has settled – and even with Johnson having yet to return – they have bounced back from a crushing, program-worst defeat at the hands of Duke by digging in, making some adjustments and taking down Big Ten foes in back-to-back 20-point wins, including then-No. 15 Michigan in Ann Arbor.

In the NCAA's own Bracket Preview Show on Feb. 15, Illinois wasn't included in the reveal of the committee's top 16 seeds with a month left to go. Plenty has happened since – and plenty more is to come. But let's use that as a jumping-off point since the results come straight from the horse's mouth.

The Illini, though a seemingly so-so 19-11 overall and 11-8 in the Big Ten, have seven Quadrant 1 wins – the same number as Florida, Texas A&M and Purdue, which were 1, 2 and 2 seeds, respectively, as of the airing of the Bracket Preview Show. Only nine teams have more.

In the NET Rankings developed and favored by the NCAA, the Illini are ranked No. 17. If the committee weighs seeding assignments as it claims to, a No. 7 seed simply isn't good enough for Illinois.

Play the right way at the right time. pic.twitter.com/zRBPFWlpK7

— Illinois Men's Basketball (@IlliniMBB) March 2, 2025

And if the Illini put on another show Friday, decisively turning back Purdue in the regular-season finale, and then make a run through the Big Ten Tournament (let's call it two wins and then a loss in the final)? A 7 seed would be preposterous. A 6? Honestly, likely still too low.

Illinois is widely acknowledged to have one of the highest ceilings in college basketball, and a best-case scenario has Johnson returning healthy, a few more three-point attempts falling and the team continuing to win. Depending on how the competition around the Illini's seed line fares over the next 10 days or so, they can – and should – slip into a 5 seed.

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