ESPN's BPI Predicts Illinois vs. Iowa in Big Ten Tournament

The Illini are expected to take down the Hawkeyes and snuff out their remaining NCAA Tournament hopes

Feb 25, 2025; Champaign, Illinois, USA; Iowa Hawkeyes forward Ladji Dembele (13) drives the ball against Illinois Fighting Illini forward Jake Davis (15) during the second half at State Farm Center. Mandatory Credit: Ron Johnson-Imagn Images / Ron Johnson-Imagn Images

No. 24 Illinois (20-11, 12-8 Big Ten) was able to sit back and watch Wednesday as Iowa and Ohio State battled it out in their first-round matchup in the Big Ten Tournament, with the Hawkeyes (17-15, 7-13 Big Ten) prevailing 77-70 and setting up Thursday's second-round matchup against the Illini (5:30 p.m. CT, BTN). 

Back to 0-0.

📅 March 13
🆚 [10] Ohio State / [15] Iowa
⏰ 5:30 p.m. CT
📍 Gainbridge Fieldhouse
📺 Big Ten Network pic.twitter.com/ckFOuHMJ8N

— Illinois Men's Basketball (@IlliniMBB) March 12, 2025

Because the Illini are a higher seed at No. 7 (compared to the Hawkeyes' No. 15) and riding a three-game winning streak – one of which happened to be an 81-61 victory over Iowa – it’s no surprise that Illinois is favored to win. According to ESPN’s Basketball Power Index (BPI) Predictions, in fact, the Illini are fairly heavy favorites, as the analytics give them a 74.1 percent chance of advancing to the next round.

But a 1-in-4 chance isn't nothing, and Iowa has been on a bit of a streak of its own, winning back-to-back do-or-die games against favored opponents and building momentum at just the right time.

According to ESPN’s metrics, Iowa had just a 29.8 percent chance of beating Nebraska, a game the Hawkeyes won by 15. And in Wednesday's game, the numbers gave the Hawkeyes just a 33.8 percent probability of knocking off Ohio State.

For the math majors at home, that translated to just a 10.1 percent chance of Iowa winning both of those contests.

So although the Illini may be favored by the analytics, and also by recent history, don’t be shocked if this peaking Hawkeyes squad puts up a bigger fight than anyone outside Iowa City expects.

More From Illinois on Sports Illustrated:

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