ESPN BPI Predicts Illinois Basketball vs. No. 3 Duke

The data-driven predictor is quite confident in the Blue Devils' ability to take down the Illini

Feb 11, 2025; Champaign, Illinois, USA; Illinois Fighting Illini center Tomislav Ivisic (13) gets a hand from teammate Kylan Boswell (4) during the second half against the UCLA Bruins at State Farm Center. Mandatory Credit: Ron Johnson-Imagn Images | Ron Johnson-Imagn Images

Illinois (17-10, 9-8 Big Ten) is set to meet No. 3 Duke (23-3, 15-1 ACC) at New York CIty's Madison Square Garden on Saturday (7 p.m. CT, on FOX) for a matchup in which the Illini are going to need quite a bit of luck, at least according to one source.

Meet you at The Garden.#Illini | #HTTO | #EveryDayGuys pic.twitter.com/75by2DPHdg

— Illinois Men's Basketball (@IlliniMBB) August 14, 2024

ESPN's Basketball Power Index (BPI) analytics give Illinois just a 19.8 percent chance of taking down the Blue Devils. In other words, if these two squads were to meet 10 times, the Illini would prevail, on average, approximately only twice.

But if there's any good news involved for Illinois, ESPN's BPI hasn’t been the most accurate in predicting the fate of coach Brad Underwood’s crew in recent games.

Just last Saturday, ESPN incorrectly picked the winner of Illinois-Michigan State.

The bad news?

The metrics overestimated the Illini, projecting them to beat the Spartans – which did not happen. 

As for predictions involving the Blue Devils, ESPN's BPI has fared well, correctly "predicting" 23 of their 26 matchups thus far.

The only three missteps?

Each of Duke’s losses.

According to the BPI metrics, Cooper Flagg and the Blue Devils have been favored to win every time they’ve stepped on the court this season.

Meaning, for the Illini, there may be some hope.

Although Duke has won 19 of its last 20, it was only four games ago that the Blue Devils went to Clemson – where ESPN gave them a 74.9 percent chance of winning – and, despite hitting half their three-point attempts, fell to the Tigers, 77-71.

The main headline: Duke's inability to control the glass, as it was outrebounded 36-23. Matched up with an Illinois team that ranks second in the country with a plus-10.0 rebounding margin (although it’s worth noting that Illinois is without Morez Johnson Jr.’s 6.6 per game), the Blue Devils may need a stellar showing on the boards to avoid an upset at MSG.

Yet Saturday's game is clearly Duke’s to lose, as Illinois will need a season-best performance on both ends to beat the odds and shock the college basketball world.

More From Illinois on Sports Illustrated:

Why Illinois Basketball Didn't Shake Hands With Wisconsin After Loss

Former Illini Terrence Shannon Jr. Pays Tribute to Michigan State's Tom Izzo

How to Watch: Illinois Basketball vs. Duke (Game 28)