ESPN's Joe Lunardi Reveals Encouraging NCAA Tournament Path for Illinois

Illinois is indisputably in the thick of its roughest patch of the 2025-26 season. The Illini have lost four of their past six outings, which is partially the result of a gauntlet of a stretch but even more a consequence of incessant defensive miscues.

Despite that, Brad Underwood’s club still holds a two seed in the latest Bracketology update from ESPN’s Joe Lunardi. And with contests against Oregon on Tuesday (8 p.m. CT, NBCSN and Peacock) and Maryland on Sunday serving as the lone matchups left on Illinois’ regular-season slate, it’s safe to say a two seed is now the Illini’s to lose.

Illinois' updated NCAA Tournament path from ESPN's Joe Lunardi

Feb 27, 2026; Champaign, Illinois, USA; Illinois Fighting Illini guard Keaton Wagler (23) drives the ball against Michigan Wolverines guard Roddy Gayle Jr. (11) during the first half at State Farm Center. Mandatory Credit: Ron Johnson-Imagn Images | Ron Johnson-Imagn Images

Based on Lunardi’s projections as of Tuesday morning, we can take a look at Illinois’ potential path – and dive into why it’s so enticing.

The NCAA Tournament first round would pit Illinois against 15th-seeded East Tennessee State, which doesn’t have the physical tools to compete. In the second round, the Illini would then face the winner of SMU and Saint Mary’s.

Notably, the Gaels did just beat Gonzaga, but even so, they have played just two high-major foes, and they were blasted by 25 one of them in Vanderbilt. Meanwhile, SMU is eighth in the standings of a down ACC, although the Mustangs have been fairly competitive with the top teams in the league.

Next up, theoretically, would be the winner of third-seeded Kansas and sixth-seeded Kentucky (under the perhaps ill-advised assumption of no upsets), the former of which could cause Illinois problems.

The Jayhawks are a stingy defensive unit with one of the best game-planners in the history of college basketball in Bill Self. Toss in arguably the premier bucket-getter in the sport in freshman Darryn Peterson, and Kansas is a dangerous matchup.

Then again, every three seed is. And on the flip side, the Jayhawks are mediocre on the glass and lack a diverse offensive attack capable of taking full advantage of the occasionally porous Illini defense. In other words: Kansas may be dangerous, but it’s thoroughly beatable.

Now if Illinois can find its way to the Elite Eight, it would likely see Arizona or Alabama. The Illini undoubtedly wouldn’t mind getting another crack at the Crimson Tide, but they did in fact lose to them early this season. And, naturally, the No. 2-ranked Wildcats would be an extremely tough matchup. Nevertheless, when the other one-seed options are Duke, Michigan and UConn, perhaps Illinois wouldn’t mind Arizona.

At the end of the day, in college basketball – and especially at the Big Dance – any team can go down on a given night. So in Lunardi’s latest projection, Illinois’ route is far from a cakewalk. But the Illini do have a desirable path – which is all any team can hope for.

For now, though, the Illini must (as Underwood is so fond of saying) control the controllables: beat Oregon and Maryland, and put together a solid showing in the Big Ten Tournament to cement themselves as a two seed.