ESPN Matchup Predictor Tabs Slight Favorite in Illinois at Nebraska

Exactly 50 days to the minute separates Illinois’ first matchup with Nebraska on Dec. 13 – a gut-wrenching three-point loss for the Illini – and the club’s opportunity to exact revenge on the Cornhuskers on Feb. 1 (3 p.m. CT, FS1).

In the time since, the two squads have combined for just one loss. Brad Underwood and Co. haven’t lost a game, while Nebraska’s lone blemish came in its previous outing – a three-point loss at No. 3 Michigan.

The Huskers led for 91 percent of that ball game, despite being down two of its top three scorers in Rienk Mast and Braden Frager. They controlled the action and, especially for the vast majority of the final 20 minutes, appeared to clearly be the better team – even without two of their workhorses.

Leaving Lincoln with a win over Nebraska, which boasts an average margin of plus-19.3 in home games against Big Ten foes, is going to be an extremely tall task for Illinois. But if there is any team capable of pulling it off, it’s the blazing-hot Illini.

ESPN metric picks favorite in Illinois at Nebraska

Jan 24, 2026; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Nebraska Cornhuskers head coach Fred Hoiberg looks on during the first half against the Minnesota Golden Gophers at Williams Arena. Mandatory Credit: Matt Krohn-Imagn Images | Matt Krohn-Imagn Images

Per ESPN’s matchup predictor, the game is all but a toss up, as the analytical tool gives Nebraska a 54.1 percent chance of successfully defending its home floor, which means it projects Illinois to have a 45.9 percent chance of pulling off the mild upset.

Is it a fair assessment?

There’s no way around it: Illinois is the more talented team. Even down injured guard Kylan Boswell, the Illini have a higher quantity of weapons – and more dangerous ones – in their arsenal.

But the Cornhuskers, as the college hoops world saw firsthand in mid-December in Champaign, has been the better coached team this year. Defensively, Nebraska is the most synergetic unit in the country. Coach Fred Hoiberg's players may not be supremely gifted on that end, but they are all disciplined, thoroughly prepared and won’t be outhustled.

Nebraska is the embodiment of “greater than the sum of its parts” – and on both ends. Offensively, the trio of Mast, Frager and Pryce Sandfort – the latter of whom is the headline act – are talented scorers, as is Jamarques Lawrence, whom the Illini are all too familiar with. (No need to remind you who hit the game winner in the first matchup.) And it has become impossible to overlook the engine powering it all: Sam Hoiberg – a top-notch floor general and on-court extension of his coach and father.

That said, Illinois has flipped a switch since that early-season loss. The Illini have seemingly put (most of) the pieces together on defense, and surely won’t be nearly as prone to committing the same number of scouting report mistakes they were guilty of in the first matchup.

Oh, and then there’s the emergence of freshman guard Keaton Wagler, who back in December had yet to morph into the Big Ten Player of the Year candidate he now is.

There are still factors that will surely affect the outcome of the game (Mast and Frager remain unknowns) but won’t be decided until tip-off. But taking everything into account, it seems this one is poised to be yet another barnburner of a battle that sees an exchange of buckets for 40 straight minutes until a fortunate bounce or whistle pushes the game in one direction.