ESPN Prediction for Illinois Basketball vs. No. 1 Tennessee

The top-ranked Volunteers visit Champaign as the team to beat Saturday – but only as slight favorites

Dec 10, 2024; Champaign, Illinois, USA; Illinois Fighting Illini center Tomislav Ivisic (13) drives the ball against Wisconsin Badgers forward Xavier Amos (13) during the first half at State Farm Center. Mandatory Credit: Ron Johnson-Imagn Images | Ron Johnson-Imagn Images

Over the past few years, you could probably count on one hand the number of times Illinois has been an underdog on its own home court.

So when No. 1 Tennessee (9-0) visits Champaign's State Farm Center on Saturday for a pivotal non-conference matchup, the Illini (7-2) will be back in rare territory.

Given that they will be taking on college basketball's top-ranked team – even when accounting for home-court advantage – it should come as no shock that the unranked Illini aren’t favored by experts.

The only surprise may be just how small the disparity is.

According to ESPN analytics, Tennessee has a 56.6 percent chance of winning, giving Illinois a 43.4 percent chance to successfully defend its home court – not quite a coin flip, but hardly a long shot, either.

Of course, it’s only mid-December, so ESPN metrics are working with limited information. Still, the predictions for both teams through the season's first few weeks have been spot-on.

The Volunteers have been given a 60 percent chance of winning or higher in each of their games, with a matchup at Louisville marking their previous lowest win probability (64.7 percent) – a game Tennessee won 77-55.

As for Illinois, ESPN has correctly "predicted" each of their wins, including the victory over then-No. 19 Arkansas (67.9 percent chance of winning) and Tuesday’s triumph over No. 20 Wisconsin (78.0 percent). The one misstep by ESPN's analytics: the 62.8 percent chance it gave the Illini to beat Northwestern on the road – which resulted in a 70-66 overtime loss for Illinois.

In any case, the success rate of ESPN’s metrics in essentially predicting the winner of the two teams' games this season – 17 out of 18 (or 94.4 percent) – is quite impressive.

That seems to bode poorly for Illinois. But the metrics haven't been perfect, the percentages in this one are quite close, and Tennessee will be facing its toughest test yet, on the road and against an Illini team that seems to be putting the pieces together.

Is an upset in the cards? Even the numbers suggest that it's a distinct possibility.

More From Illinois on Sports Illustrated:

Illinois Basketball's Next Shot to Upset an NCAA No. 1 – Tennessee – Is Coming Soon

Tre White Powers Illinois Basketball to First Big Ten Win, Over Wisconsin

Illinois' Brad Underwood Unfazed by Ben Humrichous' Shooting Slump