Big Ten Tournament Quarterfinal: ESPN Predicts Illinois Basketball vs. Maryland

Despite the Terrapins' high seed and 91-70 thrashing of the Illini in January, the metrics see Friday's matchup as a toss-up

Jan 23, 2025; Champaign, Illinois, USA; Maryland Terrapins guard Ja'Kobi Gillespie (0) drives to the basket as Illinois Fighting Illini guard Dra Gibbs-Lawhorn (2) defends during the second half at State Farm Center. Mandatory Credit: Ron Johnson-Imagn Images | Ron Johnson-Imagn Images

With its excellent regular season, Maryland (24-7, 14-6 Big Ten), earned the 2 seed in the Big Ten Tournament, earned a double-bye and extra rest.

Meanwhile, Illinois (21-11, 12-8 Big Ten) squeaked back into the AP poll (at No. 24) and landed the 7 seed in the conference tournament, taking care of business in the second round Thursday with a 106-94 win over Iowa.

The Terrapins, ranked No. 11 overall, are winners of seven of their past eight games – the sole blemish during that stretch coming by way of a buzzer-beating prayer from Michigan State’s Tre Holloman. They appear to be one of the hottest teams in the country.

Between their proven track record throughout the season, their recent streak and a 91-70 win over the Illini in Champaign earlier this season, Maryland should be expected to walk into Gainbridge Fieldhouse on Friday and walk over Illinois, right? 

Step by step.

🆚 [2] Maryland
🏆 Big Ten Tournament
⏰ 5:30 p.m. CT
📍 Gainbridge Fieldhouse
📺 Big Ten Network pic.twitter.com/tytOjtS46b

— Illinois Men's Basketball (@IlliniMBB) March 14, 2025

The analytics disagree. Although ESPN’s Basketball Power Index (BPI) Predictions favors the Terps, it’s not by as much as you would think.

Maryland has been given a 54.3 percent chance of taking down the Illini – practically a coin flip.

For reference, Illinois is on a heater of its own, having won four straight – two of which came against top-25 opponents, including one in which the Illini were underdogs according to ESPN’s BPI (41.0 percent chance of beating Michigan).

For Illinois to beat the odds and punch its ticket to the Big Ten Tournament semifinals, it will need a stifling defensive showing from its finally healthy frontcourt of Morez Johnson Jr. and Tomislav Ivisic to slow down Maryland’s 1-2 punch of Derik Queen and Julian Reese (combined for 52 points and 23 rebounds against Illinois in January) on the interior.

More From Illinois on Sports Illustrated:

How to Watch Big Ten Tournament: Illinois Basketball vs. Maryland

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Illinois Outraces Iowa in Big Ten Tournament Second Round