Plotting Illinois Basketball's Path to a National Championship

After close and careful inspection of the bracket, we've mapped out the Illini's journey through the Madness

Mar 13, 2025; Indianapolis, IN, USA; The Illinois Fighting Illini bench celebrates after a play during the second half against the Iowa Hawkeyes at Gainbridge Fieldhouse. Mandatory Credit: Robert Goddin-Imagn Images / Robert Goddin-Imagn Images

The seed? As good as could be expected. The matchup? Nothing to sneeze at, but manageable. The venue? Can't beat it.

As for the remaining details of the 2025 NCAA Tournament path for Illinois (21-12), you'll just have to wait and see like everybody else. Or ... you can read below and learn how the sixth-seeded Illini, set to face the 11th-seeded winner of a Texas-Xavier play-in game Friday in the Midwest region at Fiserv Center in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, can wind their way through the draw to a national championship.

THE BRACKET 🙌#MarchMadness pic.twitter.com/fo6lA8hJ7g

— NCAA March Madness (@MarchMadnessMBB) March 16, 2025

First round

Six wins – that's it. All the Illini need are a half dozen wins slapped together, and the program's first-ever national championship is theirs. No big whoop, right? Well, the first step isn't exactly a doozy, but like every one of them in this pratfall-prone Illinois season, it shouldn't be underestimated.

Texas has beaten Oklahoma, Missouri and Kentucky this season and pulled off an upset before running into Tennessee in the SEC Tournament semifinals. Xavier is a 21-win team that has wins over Creighton, UConn and Marquette. Neither is playing their best basketball, though, and Illinois' combined talent, size and athleticism should carry the day.

Second round

Third-seeded Kentucky should see to the fall of Troy in the first round, and then Otega Oweh will become Illinois' problem. And as an explosive and dynamic 6-foot-4 guard, Oweh is just the type of player who has been a big one for the Illini at times this season.

But with a portion of the next few days' practice plan devoted to Oweh and the Wildcats, and with Kylan Boswell now sufficiently motivated to rain misery down on any opposing scorer, the Illini have the tools to advance past the tournament's first weekend and to the Sweet 16 in Indianapolis.

Sweet 16

Oh, baby, this is what March is all about: A still-wet-behind-the-ears Illinois squad nearly upended then-No. 1 Tennessee way back in December, falling on a last-second, full-court drive and layup by Jordan Gainey in Champaign. Excusing the Vols from the Big Dance would be sweet vengeance.

And why not? Illinois, although still a bit damp behind those ears, is now battle-tested but healthy, rested and ready for anything Tennessee can throw at it. We're calling it: After an up-and-down freshman season, Kasparas Jakucionis rises again, delivering the dagger with his own last-second shot to oust the Volunteers.

Elite Eight

It ended here a year ago. Can the Illini take the next step? A tantalizing scenario would have fourth-seeded Purdue make its own run and pick up with Illinois where the two left off in their slugfest barely more than a week ago (an 88-80 Illini win).

But 1 seed Houston, winners of the Big 12 Tournament championship and a total of 13 straight, has looked very tough and is the pick to meet Illinois here. There is nothing easy about this matchup, especially because the Cougars specialize at pressuring ball handlers and specifically forcing them to make good decisions under poor circumstances – not exactly a strength of coach Brad Underwood's crew to this point. But if ever there were a time for the Illini to mature, meld and make hay against an elite opponent, it might as well be here and now.

Final Four

Another No. 1 seeed? Another non-conference opponent that cut down Illinois earlier this season? Yeah let's do it. If the Illini have come this far, they might as well get their retribution and set right the worst loss in program history – a 110-67 curb-stomping by Duke at New York's Madison Square Garden last month.

Cooper Flagg (ankle) may very well still be less than his best self, and in any case, the Illini were ready for him at MSG. It was his teammates they never saw coming. But in this go-round, Illinois will have Morez Johnson Jr., so a minus-14 rebounding margin is no longer on the table. If they (finally) get a handle on their pick-and-roll defense and find it in them to raise the bar on their – lordy mama – 2-for-26 three-point shooting from the first outing, the Illini can pull off the stunner.

National championship game

Sparty didn't honestly believe they'd get through the season without having another whirl on the dance floor with the Illini, did they? After ending Auburn's 2024-25 dominance with an Elite Eight upset and then sending Florida back to the swamp in their Final Four matchup, second-seeded Michigan State will be on Cloud 9 entering a third meeting with its Big Ten nemesis – right where Illinois wants it.

In one of the most physical national championship games a college hoops fan could ever witness, the Illini and Spartans play to a bruising standoff on the boards, but Boswell again puts the wraps on Jaden Akins, and in the final seconds of a neck-and-neck thriller, Illini center Tomislav Ivisic makes a textbook read from the post to find Will Riley behind the three-point arc, where the freshman elevates his 6-foot-8 frame, fires and finds nylon to capture the first NCAA men's basketball national championship in Illinois history.

It's a simple plan. Let's see if the Illini take it and run with it.

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