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Analysis: What Does Kofi Cockburn's Declaration Mean?

Illinois center Kofi Cockburn has declared for the 2020 NBA Draft but also allowed for the possibility of a return for his sophomore season at Illinois.
Matthew Stevens|
Analysis: What Does Kofi Cockburn's Declaration Mean?
Analysis: What Does Kofi Cockburn's Declaration Mean?

CHAMPAIGN, Ill. -- Kofi Cockburn has declared for the 2020 NBA Draft process and so, the obvious question is what happens now? 

And right there, that's the problem because the world health concerns revolving around the COVID-19 epidemic make practically every answer to a question about future plans of mass gatherings a three-word phrase: "We don't know". 

The encouraging factor for Illinois fans who would like to see the 7-foot, 290-pound center in an Illini jersey next season lies in the fact that Cockburn's message on Instagram doesn't include the line: "and will be signing with an agent". This detail allows for Cockburn, as of now, to return to Illinois for a sophomore campaign in a seamless transition after getting feedback from NBA scouting personnel. Yes, according to relatively legislation agreed upon by the NCAA, Cockburn could sign with one of the NCAA-approved agents and maintain his credibility but as Stadium.com analyst Jeff Goodman pointed out last week on Twitter, practically none of the NCAA certified agents are from large firms that normally get high-profile athletes to sign with them. It should be noted, Cockburn could sign with a non-certified agent and then elect to investigate whether he could return to Illinois by agreeing to an investigation and review by the NCAA's Student-Athlete Reinstatement team, a committee inside the NCAA's academic and membership affairs department. It should also be noted this process is time-consuming and not something the school, athletic program, agent/agency or the athlete and/or his/her family ever enjoys. 

However, it would be a mistake not to point out the wording of Cockburn's message also put everything about his college career in the past tense. 

“To begin, I would like to thank God for giving me the opportunity to live out my dream and play this wonderful game that I love so much," Cockburn's message stated. "Thank you to my coaches and mentors for taking a chance on me and guiding me on this journey. To my family, I can’t thank you enough for the love and guidance. Without it, I don’t know where I’d be today. To my team, the bond I have created with my teammates is something I will cherish forever. We continued to uplift, encourage and motivate one another on and off the court and for that I am thankful. To Illini Nation, what a road it’s been. Thank you for welcoming me with open arms. You guys made this journey all the more special. Game after game, you filled the arena showing us what true unconditional support is! Ever since I began playing basketball, a fire has been lit inside me which I knew I had to pursue to the fullest extent. With that being said, I have decided to declare for the 2020 NBA Draft. Embarking on this new journey is something I have always dreamt of and I have a special love for everyone who’s helped me get here.”

If Cockburn were to return to Illinois: This part is easy. Cockburn gets to return to an Illini program with aspirations of making the 2021 NCAA Tournament without having gone through postseason play this past March due to the COVID-19 worldwide cancellations. Cockburn would return to college basketball as one of the most dominant big man in arguably the best league in college basketball (likely along with Iowa's Luka Garza) while still being able to work on his very raw but high potential offensive game with Illini assistant coach Orlando Antigua. Cockburn still needs to learn how to consistently catch the ball in the post, stretch his offensive game out beyond the lane and show an ability to guard screen-and-roll offenses at a much higher level to be ready for the NBA. The Athletic's Sam Vecenie didn't have Cockburn listed among his current 2020 Top 100 draft prospects and the NBA Draft is only 60 selections. 

If Cockburn were to remain in the draft process: This is the fear of every Illini fan who doesn't want to see Cockburn be a one-and-done player. To underestimate the loss of Cockburn's sheer physical presence and importance to the Illini's 2020-21 season is practically impossible to do. We can start on the defense end of the floor where Cockburn allowed Illinois to back off pressure style and the gambling nature of how Brad Underwood likes to coach because a rim-protector existed who averaged 1.4 blocks and probably three to four shots per game altered near the hoop. On the offensive end, this impact is relatively obvious. If Ayo Dosunmu were to leave for the NBA Draft, which is still considered a likelihood, Illinois would lose four of its top five scorers from this past season and 51.3 of the minutes played from the 2019-20 campaign. And this isn't a program that has had a sustained level of success that can handle that kind of roster casualty turnover. Cockburn was a double-double machine against smaller non-conference lineups early in the season but also had 11.7 points and 8.2 rebounds per game in Big Ten Conference play. For a team that shot just 30.9 percent from three-point range, Cockburn was the only player to average a double-digit percentage in offensive rebounding. This means, part of Illinois' offense was throw the ball up at the rim and let Cockburn go get it and put it back in. Suddenly by losing one player, that physical presence is gone and Illinois quickly becomes one of the smaller and least physical teams in the Big Ten Conference. And while being late to the game in the regard of being a major player in the graduate transfer market, Illinois would find it difficult to acquire close to a game-changing big without being able to do anything in recruiting despite video chat. Without Cockburn next season, Underwood's proclamation last week that "we're in a good spot" when evaluating his roster versus the transfer market would very much be less than accurate. 

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Matthew Stevens
MATTHEW STEVENS

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