Two No. 2 Seeds for Three Teams: Illinois, Michigan State, Iowa State

Illinois had one job in order to secure a two seed in the NCAA Tournament: win one game in the Big Ten Tournament. Unfortunately, Nick Boyd and John Blackwell felt like throwing a huge wrench in that plan by way of 69 combined points to push Wisconsin past the Illini in overtime.

Now Illinois must sweat it out on Selection Sunday awaiting its fate. Not exactly a heartbreaker if it doesn't go the Illini's way, but still, it matters. A two seed or three seed can be the difference between a bumpy road or a pothole-ridden nightmare of a route to the Sweet 16. Naturally, the Illini would prefer the former.

So who is their competition for a two seed? Well, first let’s clear up the one seeds: Duke, Arizona, Michigan and Florida will do the honors of owning the top seeds across the four respective regions. As for the twos, UConn and Houston – the latter of which just blew past Kansas on Saturday night – have secured their spots, leaving two remaining slots up for grabs.

Where will Illinois, Michigan State and Iowa State be seeded in the NCAA Tournament?

Mar 13, 2026; Chicago, IL, USA; Illinois Fighting Illini head coach Brad Underwood gestures to refs against the Wisconsin Badgers during the second half at United Center. Mandatory Credit: David Banks-Imagn Images | David Banks-Imagn Images

Based on the NCAA Tournament selection committee’s top 16 back in late February, we’re going to settle on three teams that are in the race for the final two No. 2 seeds: Illinois (No. 7 overall in initial committee reveal), Michigan State (No. 14) and Iowa State (No. 4).

Purdue, which seems to have found its footing in the Big Ten Tournament, isn’t in the mix after finishing its regular season 1-3, while there isn’t another squad with even the slimmest argument to sneak in as one of the final two seeds.

So let’s take a look at the resumes of the Illini, Cyclones and Spartans since the committee reveal on Feb. 21:

Illinois record: 2-3

Wins: Both Quad 3
Losses: All Quad 1

Michigan State record: 4-2

Michigan State head coach Tom Izzo reacts to a play against UCLA during the second half of Big Ten tournament quarterfinal at United Center in Chicago on Friday, March 13, 2026. | Junfu Han / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Wins: Quad 1, Quad 1, Quad 2, Quad 3
Losses: All Quad 1

Iowa State record: 4-4

Iowa State Cyclones men's basketball head coach T.J. Otzelberger watches the game from the bench during the second half in the Big-12 conference men’s basketball against Texas Tech on Feb. 28, 2026, at Hilton Coliseum in Ames, Iowa. | Nirmalendu Majumdar/Ames Tribune / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Wins: Quad 2, Quad 2, Quad 2, Quad 1
Losses: All Quad 1

A theme: Every loss between these squads has come to Quad 1 opponents. The only issue? Every game played in the NCAA Tournament against another team that received an at-large bid (so, not including mid-major auto-bids) is going to be a Quad 1 game.

Moving on to the wins, Michigan State clearly has the best resume since the reveal, but it also had the largest gap to close, as the NCAA committee had the Spartans as the No. 14 team (a four seed).

That said, we’ll give the Spartans one of the two seeds given their stellar close to the regular season (finished 4-1) – which often has more sway than any conference tournament performance – and their previous head-to-head win over Illinois.

Meanwhile, Iowa State, which was ahead of Illinois in the late-February top 16, snagged its lone Quad 1 win since the reveal in the Big 12 Tournament, where it also added another Quad 2 victory (over Arizona State).

The extent to which the committee values the conference tournaments remains vague, and given the Cyclones' fairly miserable close to the regular season, it would be tough to give them the final two seed.

Then again, Illinois also had zero Quad 1 triumphs post-reveal, not to mention a one-game appearance in the Big Ten Tournament. Momentum is important to the committee – and the Illini have none.

Expect Iowa State to get the final two seed – due less to its own recent performance and more by pure process of elimination. Meanwhile, Illinois should own the top No. 3 seed in the Big Dance – admittedly a consolation prize.