Illinois at No. 14 Michigan State: Three In the Key Matchup Preview/Prediction

Illinois is looking to snap a 15-game skid against Top 25 opponents in true road games.

EAST LANSING, Mich. -- Illinois heads to one of the toughest environments for a road team, especially in Big Ten play, looking to snap a 15-game skid against Top 25 opponents in true road games. Illinois beat No. 13 Maryland last season at Madison Square Garden, but the Illini’s last victory on a ranked team’s home court was a 66-63 win at No. 24 Iowa on March 8, 2014, on a Jon Ekey three-pointer with :00.5 left.

Michigan State is 414-61 at home all-time since the Breslin Center opened in 1989, including 217-46 in Big Ten play but Illinois has had success in East Lansing. Since 2002, Illinois has been victorious five times in East Lansing – including consecutive wins in 2014 and 2015.

“Every one of those (Big Ten games) is a grind and it feels like you’re in a boxing match,” Illinois head coach

Brad Underwood

said Wednesday. “It’s a different atmosphere and it’s a different feel about those games.”

Game 14: Illinois at No. 14 Michigan State

Date/Time/Place: Thursday, Jan. 2, 2020: 7 p.m. CST, Breslin Center, East Lansing, Michigan

Capacity: 14,797

Records: Illinois 9-4, 1-1 in Big Ten; 12-21, 7-13 in Big Ten Conference in 2018-19. Michigan State 10-3, 2-0 in Big Ten; 32-7, 16-4 in Big Ten Conference

Line: Michigan State by 10.5

Series notes: Michigan State leads 61-60. MSU leads just 16-15 dating back to 2001, and the teams are 7-7 against each other over the last 14 games. The road team has had its share of success in this series as well. Since 2002, Illinois has been victorious five times in East Lansing – including consecutive wins in 2014 and 2015 – while Michigan State has recorded six wins in Champaign.

TV: FS1 - Alex Faust (PBP), Bill Raftery (analyst)

Radio (Illinois): Brian Barnhart (PBP), Deon Thomas (analyst) - The broadcast can be heard live on TuneIn online radio, Sirius/XM 380 and at FightingIllini.com.

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Illinois guard Andres Feliz (10) and Michigan State forward Xavier Tillman (23) compete for a loose ball during the second half at State Farm Center :: Mike Granse/USA TODAY Sports

1) Which team can get out in transition easier?

Nobody will be walking the basketball up the Breslin Center floor tonight. This is a matchup between two teams that certainly want to push the tempo as fast as possible. According to hoop-math.com, Illinois gets 32 percent of its shots in transition and 32 percent of its shots in the first 10 seconds of the shot clock.

And Michigan State is faster. 

The Spartans get 37.4 percent of its shots in transition and 37 percent of its shots in the first 10 seconds of the shot clock.

“They’re a team that is like a bunch of pit bulls trying to rip a tire apart,” Underwood said Wednesday. “They’re one of the elite transition teams, not just in our league but in the country.”

As a comparable, Michigan, who Illinois defeated 71-62 on Dec. 11, only gets 28 percent of its shot attempts in transition and 28 percent of its shot attempts in the first 10 seconds of the shot clock. What does this mean? The team who can find clean looks earlier in possessions likely wins this game and limiting open-court turnovers (which Illinois averages 15 per game) will be critical.

2) Battle on the glass

Illinois comes to East Lansing leading the nation in rebounding margin by averaging to 12.5 more boards than its opponents. Rebounding is how Illinois creates transition offense and quite frankly, going to get a miss off the rim right now is one of the most consistent forms of scoring for this Illini team as they continue to struggle in the halfcourt game. Michigan State isn’t far behind. The Spartans are third in the nation in rebounding margin at 11.5 per game and are led in that regard by 6-foot-8, 240-pound junior Xavier Tillman. However, nobody on this MSU roster looks to be able to physically handle the 7-foot, 280-pound Kofi Cockburn if the freshman realizes early how to position his body correctly for misses on either end of the floor. During the Braggin’ Rights Game loss to Missouri, Cockburn was seen standing flat-footed and allowing Missouri to capitalize for 13 offensive rebounds due to bad positioning by Cockburn. Tom Izzo’s teams historically do an excellent job on the glass and if MSU runs two people on Cockburn for clear outs, that will give an Illini guard and Giorgi Bezhanishvili a chance to fill up the rebounding box score totals.

Michigan State Spartans head coach Tom Izzo has a discussion with guard Cassius Winston (5) during the first half against the Illinois Fighting Illini at State Farm Center :: Mike Granse/USA TODAY Sports

3) Who guards Cassius?

In the 79-74 win over MSU last season at State Farm Center, Preseason Big Ten Player of the Year and first-team All-American Cassius Winson had nine turnovers. Even in 2018 during a 13-point win, Winston had eight turnovers in Champaign. These pair of games represent the single-game career-high marks for the lead guard who represents the beginning, middle and end of what Michigan State is about on the offensive end. Winston leads MSU, and ranks third in the Big Ten, in scoring, averaging 17.6 points per game. He is also fourth in the league in assists, averaging 6.1 per game, and second in free throw percentage, connecting on 86.0 percent of his shots. He has so many ways to beat you including getting his teammates involved as MSU has recorded an assist on 69.9 percent of their field goals this year (260-of-372). It is anticipated that junior Trent Frazier will get the early assignment but Illinois sophomore guard Ayo Dosunmu was surprisingly eager to talk about how he’d guard Winston suggesting his length is what bothered him last year in Champaign so it is entirely possible that between Frazier, Dosunmu, Andres Feliz and even Da’Monte Williams, Illinois may give MSU’s star several looks to keep MSU from getting in any rhythm on the offensive end.

Prediction: No. 14 Michigan State 74, Illinois 65