How Far Can Illinois Go? Sweet 16 to Title Game Predictions

One weekend down, two to go. Forty-eight games (52 including the First Four) have already been played in the 2026 NCAA Tournament, and just 16 teams remain in the field. Illinois, which is set to meet No. 2 seed Houston on Thursday (9:05 p.m. CT, TBS), is one of those squads – and one of six from the Big Ten. So how will the rest of the tournament unravel?

Here are our Illinois on SI round-by-round predictions for the remainder of dance, from the Sweet 16 through the national championship game:

Sweet 16 game-by-game predictions

VCU Rams guard Brandon Jennings (0) defends Illinois Fighting Illini guard Keaton Wagler (23) Saturday, March 21, 2026, during the NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament second round game at Bon Secours Wellness Arena in Greenville, South Carolina. | Alex Martin/Greenville News / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

East Region

No. 1 seed Duke vs. No. 5 seed St. John’s

The pick: Duke. Is St. John’s capable of taking down this less-than-whole Duke club? Without a doubt. But will the Johnnies pull it off? No. Rick Pitino has put together yet another coaching masterclass this year, but his squad – which again is without consistent long-distance shooting – will run into a stronger, more well-rounded opponent in Cam Boozer and the Blue Devils.

No. 2 seed UConn vs. No. 3 seed Michigan State

The pick: Michigan State. Two high-level defenses and two offenses with more questions than answers will face off in this Sweet 16 matchup. The Huskies have a deeper arsenal of scoring weapons, but who is their go-to option down the stretch? We don’t know – and neither do they. Ride with the Big Ten’s least-favorite duo (unless you're an MSU fan) of Tom Izzo and Jeremy Fears Jr. in this one.

Midwest Region

Mar 21, 2026; Buffalo, NY, USA; Michigan Wolverines head coach Dusty May reacts in the second half against the Saint Louis Billikens during a second round game of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at Keybank Center. Mandatory Credit: Mark Konezny-Imagn Images | Mark Konezny-Imagn Images

No. 1 seed Michigan vs. No. 4 seed Alabama

The pick: Michigan. The Crimson Tide have an offense that allows them to hang with anyone – but the Wolverines aren’t just anybody. Expect Michigan to shut down Alabama’s offense and thrive on the other end in a rout.

No. 2 seed Iowa State vs. No. 6 seed Tennessee

The pick: Iowa State. These squads are eerily similar: extremely high-level defense with sound, but not exactly explosive, offense. The Cyclones just do it better on both ends, though. Even if star forward Joshua Jefferson can’t go, this is Iowa State’s game to lose.

South Region

No. 2 seed Houston vs. No. 3 seed Illinois

The pick: Illinois. On paper, the Cougars have a roster tailor-made – with the exact head coach pulling the strings – to slow the Illini offense. But on the other end, Illinois also has the pieces to keep an at-times-stagnant Houston offense in check. Expect a low-scoring affair in which the Illini defense surprisingly steps up to the plate, while Keaton Wagler and Co. do just enough offensively to get past the Cougars.

No. 4 seed Nebraska vs. No. 9 seed Iowa

The pick: Nebraska. Yet another pair of teams with a number of similarities, both the Cornhuskers and the Hawkeyes are tremendously well-coached with a star leading the way on the other end (Pryce Sandfort for Nebraska and Bennett Stirtz for Iowa). Although the disparity is relatively small, Fred Hoiberg’s unit is a touch stronger on both ends, with more options on offense and a better-connected defense.

West Region

No. 1 seed Arizona vs. No. 4 seed Arkansas

The pick: Arizona. Darius Acuff Jr. suiting up for the Razorbacks means they have a puncher’s chance – but that’s all it is. Arizona, the Goliath in this matchup, gets the nod in every measurable category. Barring a 40-piece from Acuff, the Wildcats should roll.

No. 2 seed Purdue vs. No. 11 seed Texas

Mar 22, 2026; St. Louis, MO, USA; Purdue Boilermakers guard Braden Smith (3) celebrates after a play during the second half against the Miami Hurricanes during a second round game of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at Enterprise Center. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Curry-Imagn Images | Jeff Curry-Imagn Images

The pick: Purdue. Head man Sean Miller and his Longhorns deserve credit for making it this far, but this is where the journey ends. The Boilermakers have point guard Braden Smith and, perhaps more importantly, a stellar (at long last) defense that they’ll ride past Texas.

Elite Eight game-by-game predictions

Michigan State's Jeremy Fears Jr., left, talks with head coach Tom Izzo during the second half in the game against Michigan on Sunday, March 8, 2026, at the Crisler Center in Ann Arbor. | Nick King/Lansing State Journal / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

No. 1 seed Duke vs. No. 3 seed Michigan State (East Region)

The pick: Michigan State. These two clubs met in East Lansing earlier this year, when the Blue Devils escaped with the victory. Not this time. The Spartans now have a fully formed identity and leave nothing on the table. Meanwhile, Duke has questions swirling regarding health and rotations. Cam Boozer is undoubtedly the best player in college basketball, but he won’t be enough to put Duke over the top in this one.

No. 1 seed Michigan vs. No. 2 seed Iowa State (Midwest Region)

The pick: Michigan. Iowa State has a defense capable of causing Michigan fits, but even if that scenario unfolds, the Cyclones won’t be able to buy a bucket on the other end. Milan Momcilovic might have to hit 10 threes for Iowa State to prevail. We’ll go out on a very short limb and say that doesn’t happen.

No. 3 seed Illinois vs. No. 4 seed Nebraska (South Region)

The pick: Illinois. These two programs split the regular-season series even at 1-1 (both actually won on the road), but the Illini are just too loaded offensively for the Cornhuskers to keep up. Illinois found the answers for Nebraska’s unique defensive scheme the last time around. And with the level the Illini defense is currently operating at, it may be an extremely long night for the Cornhuskers on the other end, as well.

No. 1 seed Arizona vs. No. 2 seed Purdue (West Region)

The pick: Arizona. The Big Ten owns this projected Final Four in what has been a great year for the league – but, unfortunately for the Boilers, they aren't invited to the party. Arizona is a juggernaut on both ends, and the Wildcats should have no trouble forcing Smith to be a scorer instead of a playmaker (the go-to recipe for slowing down Purdue’s offense) while sending the Boilermakers' defense back to its horrid regular-season form.

Final Four predictions

Michigan State vs. Illinois

The pick: Illinois. The Breslin Center saw a referee classic in February (40 total fouls called) – a game in which Michigan State prevailed in overtime. Despite a season-worst showing from Wagler (2-for-16), the Illini mostly got what they wanted offensively. The shots just didn’t fall. This time, they will. Also, Kylan Boswell – the desired matchup for Jeremy Fears Jr. – is back, and he’s playing like the best perimeter defender in the country.

Michigan vs. Arizona

The pick: Arizona. The two best squads in the country will face off in this Final Four matchup, which arguably is a de facto national championship game. The Wildcats have been a touch more consistent this year, and they have the muscle and size to give even Michigan problems on the interior.

2026 NCAA National Championship prediction

Jan 31, 2026; Tempe, Arizona, USA; Arizona Wildcats head coach Tommy Lloyd against the Arizona State Sun Devils at Desert Financial Arena. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images | Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images

Illinois vs. Arizona

The pick: Arizona. The Illini see their NCAA Tournament run eventually stalled in the title game against a Wildcats unit that is flat-out better. Aside from Houston in the Sweet 16, Illinois ends up being a beneficiary of a generous path – until the national championship. Expect that Arizona defense to stifle the Illini’s historically efficient offense, while Illinois’ other key strength – rebounding – also disappears against the Wildcats.