Will the NCAA Tournament Committee Put Illinois' Season in Perspective?

Injuries and illness tell a big part of the story of the Illini's inconsistencies. Will tourney officials take notice?

Jan 23, 2025; Champaign, Illinois, USA; Illinois Fighting Illini head coach Brad Underwood before the tipoff of a game with the Maryland Terrapins at State Farm Center. Mandatory Credit: Ron Johnson-Imagn Images | Ron Johnson-Imagn Images

Strength of schedule was a hot offseason topic around Champaign, and Illinois coach Brad Underwood never shied away from it. Young or not, he reasoned, his Illini would need to be battle-tested during the season if they were going to get where he expected them to go: San Antonio's Alamodome, home of the 2025 Final Four.

As it turns out, the schedule has cut both ways, not only because of Illinois' injuries, illnesses and general inconsistencies, but also because the Big Ten has been a more robust proving ground than most expected this season. Although only one team in the conference (Purdue) currently lands in the top 10 of the NET rankings, six – including the Illini, at No. 12 – show up in the top 25.

Highlights from No. 23 Illinois' 95-74 victory over Minnesota. pic.twitter.com/v4EdZNakxo

— Illinois Men's Basketball (@IlliniMBB) February 9, 2025

That NET ranking and the quadrant system that it informs are a big deal – the biggest, actually – to the NCAA Tournament selection committee. So when Underwood was asked before Saturday's Minnesota game whether he thought the committee would take into account the multiple games missed by key contributors Tomislav Ivisic and Kasparas Jakucionis, plus the flu bug that has made the rounds through the Illini locker room, his initial reaction seemed to be a mixture of surprise and defiance.

"We've got six Quad 1 wins," he said. "I mean, we're one of the most ... been one of the ..."

Underwood quickly reset. But his point was made: Whether or not their roster has been compromised at times this season, the Illini (16-8, 8-6 Big Ten) have already put together what should be an impressive resume for the committee to consider. Currently, only nine teams have more Quad 1 wins – and Illinois has already beaten two of them.

"We aren't worried about any of that yet," Underwood said. "I know we've got six Quad 1 wins, and I think just about every game we've got on the schedule is pretty close to that."

At the moment, even with eight losses, the Illini would likely be looking at a No. 4 seed in the NCAA Tournament. There is a gauntlet that remains to be run, including the Big Ten tournament, but the challenge promises as much opportunity as adversity.

Illinois' next four opponents – UCLA, Michigan State, Wisconsin (on the road) and Duke (on a neutral site) – and six of its last seven foes are current top-25 NET teams, all of which would make for excellent Quad 1 wins. Even if the Illini deliver mixed results but are competitive in those matchups, and then follow with a solid conference tournament showing, their current No. 3/4 seed status would likely hold.

Would the committee give proper credit for Illinois' near upsets of then-No. 1 Tennessee and Michigan State on the road, as well as weigh its hard luck staying healthy, then show them even more favor?

Said Underwood: "That's for somebody else to figure out that we played a lot of our games without our best players."

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