Staff Picks: Who Wins Illinois vs Iowa in the NCAA Tournament Elite Eight?

To this point in the NCAA Tournament, Illinois (27-8) has played with laser focus, a grinder's mentality and maxium effort. The third-seeded Illini, by all appearances, fully understand the stakes. Now, as they ready to face ninth-seeded Iowa (24-14), is no time to start feeling entitled.

Illinois dispatched Penn and VCU in fairly dominant fashion in manageable matchups in the early rounds, then – in a revelatory 40 minutes – embodied exactly the promise many experts saw in the Illini these past few months in a 65-55 takedown of Houston in the Sweet 16. Is there any risk that they might let up against a Hawkeyes team that it has handled once already this season and entered March just on the other side of the tournament bubble? Absolutely. And it'll be up to the Illini to push back on that instinct with everything they've got.

If the team that showed up at Houston's Toyota Center on Thursday shows up to run it back in the same gym Saturday (5:09 p.m. CT, TBS and TruTV), even Iowa coach Ben McCollum – college basketball's beautiful mind of the moment – won't have enough answers to pull the upset. But if Illinois doesn't grab the opportunity to make its first Final Four since 2005 with both hands, the Hawkeyes are capable of (yet again) crashing the party.

And how does our crack Illinois on SI staff expect Illinois-Iowa to unfold? See our predictions below:

Jason Langendorf

Iowa's best, and perhaps only, chance on Saturday is to slow the pace, get hot from three-point range and close the size and talent gap in this matchup by squeezing just a bit more scoring out of every possession. In the tournament, Illinois' defense has generally done a brilliant job of shutting down the interior, contesting on the perimeter and commanding the boards to prevent second opportunities. If Kylan Boswell recognizes his assignment against Bennett Stirtz as mission-critical and the Illini's energy and effort on the defensive end don't waver, everything else should fall into place.

Prediction: Illinois 78, Iowa 66

A B1G matchup in Houston, TX 🎬🔥

It's @IowaHoops 🆚 @IlliniMBB for a spot in the @MFinalFour ‼️ pic.twitter.com/kzb4X3nMka
— Big Ten Men's Basketball (@B1GMBBall) March 27, 2026

Steve Greenberg

Fear Hawkeyes coach Ben McCollum. No, really, you should. This is a guy who won four – count ’em, four – Division II tournaments at Northwest Missouri State, which got him to Drake for a brief, successful stop-off before Iowa beckoned. McCollum prepping a plan and a team for the Illini is not to be taken lightly. On the other hand, enough about him and the Hawkeyes. Did you see the defense the Illini threw at Houston? Of course you did. Who knew they could do that? Oh, stop, you did not. But now that the Illini are a defensive machine, along with their size and skill at the other end? Gotta go with them to get to the Final Four.

Prediction: Illinois 79, Iowa 74

ILLINOIS IS ON FIRE RIGHT NOW pic.twitter.com/DqkBadDMvv
— CBS Sports College Basketball 🏀 (@CBSSportsCBB) March 27, 2026

Jackson Langendorf

Iowa, which has an absolute stud in Stirtz, a supporting cast that has finally stepped up and a special coach in McCollum, is playing its best ball of the season. But so is every other team in the Elite Eight, including Illinois. And unfortunately for the Hawkeyes, the best version of the Illini simply exists on a different tier. Iowa's run, in all honesty, has been utterly unforeseen (these guys lost to Penn State less than a month ago!), but it hasn't all been some stroke of amazing fortune. The Hawkeyes are good, but the Illini are better. By a lot.

Prediction: Illinois 80, Iowa 65

Pranav Hegde

Illinois vs. Iowa. A trip to the Final Four on the line. Just like everyone predicted, right? The Hawkeyes have reached the Elite Eight in improbable fashion, but it feels like the run ends here. The Illini have too much talent, too much size and, most importantly, the best player on the floor in Keaton Wagler.

Prediction: Illinois 82, Iowa 71

Jared Shlesky

Both teams are playing well, but there’s no denying Iowa has played better competition than Illinois in the tournament so far. And that should scare Illini Nation a little bit. Both teams are capable of winning this game, but I like Iowa for two reasons: One, Wagler has yet to play great in the tournament and 2) the Hawkeyes are really good at winning low-scoring games. I expect this one to be a grind – and for Iowa to do just enough to win.

Prediction: Iowa 67, Illinois 66

🤯🤯🤯

Watch. Count. Repeat.
pic.twitter.com/Mx4oKjhd3E
— Iowa Men’s Basketball (@IowaHoops) March 27, 2026

Jack Ankony

The Illini seem to be clicking on all cylinders at the right time. They won a high-scoring game over Penn to start the tournament and then showed they can win a physical, defensive battle against Houston. That eases my concerns over Iowa’s slow pace and unique style, especially since Illinois faced it earlier this season. Illinois should have advantages inside and on the glass, which could offset a big game from Stirtz.