Staff Picks: Who Wins No. 11 Illinois vs. Oregon?

National-championship-caliber Illinois has lost four of six, while Big Ten bottom dweller Oregon has won three of five, which just goes to show you how quickly fortunes can turn in a college basketball conference that also doubles for a real-life Thunderdome. The Illini and Ducks will both need to keep their heads on a swivel in Tuesday's matchup at Champaign's State Farm Center (8 p.m. CT, NBCSN and Peacock).

No. 11 Illinois (22-7, 13-5 Big Ten) is – and unequivocally should be – the favorite when the teams hit the floor. The Illini are coming off a crusher of a loss to Michigan, it is Senior Night in Champaign, and they are an excellent collection of talent with a world of physical advantages over Oregon's roster.

Those aren't the only facts of the matter, though. Dana Altman is a fantastic coach, Ducks center Nate Bittle is hitting his stride after returning from a five-game injury absence, and weird things just seem to happen around these Illini, whose three-point shooting and defensive will sometimes seems to come and go with the wind.

Does Oregon have a shot? Our crack Illinois on SI staff makes the call below:

Jason Langendorf

Oregon has no business strutting into the State Farm Center and taking a game off Illinois – not in its own building, not on Senior Night, not on any night in the 2025-26 season. And yet ... there is a niggling sense that the Ducks are finally coming around – and just when the Illini seem to be going through an identity crisis. If Brad Underwood knows what's good for him, he'll challenge his guys to attack the basket rather than settle for threes and threaten to burn the place down if they don't defend as if their lives depend on it. If the Illini do both, they win running away.

Prediction: Illinois 89, Oregon 76

One last time at home.

📅 Mar. 3
🆚 Oregon
🎓 Senior Day Ceremony - 7:30 p.m.
⏰ 8 p.m. CT
📍State Farm Center
📺 NBCSN & Peacock
🎟️ https://t.co/eoJv9jqvOE pic.twitter.com/ItFoPgf4v0
— Illinois Men's Basketball (@IlliniMBB) March 2, 2026

Steve Greenberg

As it turned out, Michigan was a nightmare matchup for the Illini. The subpar Ducks, on the other hand, are right in the ol’ wheelhouse. The three-point shot will be there for the making. Not that the Illini ever need convincing to take an obscene amount of them.

Prediction: Illinois 84, Oregon 69

AND ONE for Keaton Wagler and @IlliniMBB from three🔥 pic.twitter.com/HZ6m9IHwQe
— FOX College Hoops (@CBBonFOX) February 28, 2026

Jackson Langendorf

Oregon may be the most dangerous 4-14 Big Ten team in some time, as the Ducks have a skilled frontcourt trio in Nate Bittle, Kwame Evans Jr. and Sean Stewart, along with an experienced guard in Takai Simpkins. Playing their best basketball of the season, the Ducks knocked off Wisconsin by 14 before playing Northwestern down to the wire on the road. Still, Oregon is 4-14 in league play. Illinois desperately needs to get right – especially on defense – and should do just that Tuesday night.

Prediction: Illinois 81, Oregon 70

Pranav Hegde

Illinois needs a reset after back-to-back losses, and Senior Night should do the trick. The Illini figure to come out with the urgency they need to start clicking with only two regular-season games left. Oregon is having a down year, and I don’t expect that to change in Champaign, where Illinois’ size and depth will wear on the Ducks over 40 minutes. Watch the Illini create separation in the second half and coast to their first win in almost two weeks.

Prediction: Illinois 84, Oregon 64

From manager, to walk-on, to scholarship player.

Thank you, AJ, for showing up every day. pic.twitter.com/yYEa0dTWds
— Illinois Men's Basketball (@IlliniMBB) March 2, 2026

Jared Shlesky

Illinois is coming off its worst loss of the season against Michigan, while Oregon is coming off a tough loss to Northwestern. And even though the Ducks have played better over the past two weeks, they aren't on the same level as the Illini. This game might be close for a while, but I still like Illinois to pull away late and win by double digits.

Prediction: Illinois 75, Oregon 65

Jack Ankony

The last two regular-season games – against Oregon and Maryland – won’t do much from a resume standpoint, but they are opportunities for Illinois to build some momentum going into postseason play after two straight losses. Oregon has a formidable frontcourt with Bittle and Evans, so Illinois must play better inside than it did against Michigan’s bigs. But the Illini have a major advantage at the guard and wing positions, and I don’t see Oregon being able to get enough stops to stay competitive in this game.