Three Things to Watch for When No. 10 Illinois Faces No. 3 Michigan

Michigan clinched at least a share of the Big Ten regular season title with Tuesday's 77-67 win over Minnesota, but that doesn't entirely knock Illinois out of the race. However unlikely, the Illini still have a chance to grab a share of the title.

They would have to win out against Michigan, Oregon and Maryland, while hoping the Wolverines lose at Iowa and at home against Michigan State. Crazier things have happened. Nebraska, Purdue and Michigan State still have a chance, too, but each of those scenarios would also require their winning out and Michigan losing out.

Perhaps more important for Illinois is NCAA Tournament seeding and securing a triple-bye in the Big Ten Tournament, which is given to the top four teams. Illinois, Nebraska, Purdue and Michigan State, each have four conference losses, but only three can join Michigan as a top-four seed.

That makes Friday's 7 p.m. CT tip-off against No. 3 Michigan at the State Farm Center a pivotal game for Illinois, which is coming off a 95-94 overtime loss at UCLA on Saturday. Here are three things to watch as Illinois goes for a bounce-back win over the Wolverines:

1. Illinois' perimeter defense

Kylan Boswell Illinois Basketball — Illinois basketball's Kylan Boswell (4) against Penn State at The Palestra on Jan. 3, 2026. | Taj Falconer / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Part of the formula behind Duke's 68-63 win over then-No. 1 Michigan on Saturday was shutting down the Wolverines' guards. This is perhaps the only way to take down Michigan, whose frontcourt trio of Yaxel Lendeborg, Morez Johnson Jr. and Aday Mara is borderline unstoppable.

Starting guards Elliot Cadeau and Nimari Burnett, along with backup guards L.J. Cason, Roddy Gayle Jr. and Trey McKenney, combined for just 19 points on 6-for-25 (24.0 percent) shooting from the field and 2-for-14 (14.2 percent) three-point shooting against Duke. That's a far cry from the season-long averages of those five, who combine to average 44.4 points per game, with four shooting 37.6 percent or higher from three-point range.

A promising sign for Illinois in this matchup is that it has a height and length advantage on the perimeter. All five Michigan guards stand 6-foot-4 or shorter, while Kylan Boswell is Illinois' only player below 6-foot-6.

Height alone won't shut down the quickness of Cadeau and company, but it certainly helps. To win this matchup, Illinois must be sharp with its defensive rotations on the perimeter and deter three-point shots.

2. Can Aday Mara stay out of foul trouble?

Aday Mara Michigan Basketball — Michigan Wolverines center Aday Mara (15) dunks against the Northwestern Wildcats at Welsh-Ryan Arena. | David Banks-Imagn Images

Michigan has one of the nation's best centers in the 7-foot-3 Mara. In just 22.5 minutes per game, he is averaging 11.1 points, 6.9 rebounds and a Big Ten-high 2.6 blocks per game, while shooting 66.7 percent from the field.

But against Duke, he was limited to just six first-half minutes after picking up three fouls. Michigan trailed by only two at halftime, and it has depth with Johnson and Will Tschetter to be OK without Mara for small stretches. But in a close game, small margins can be the difference between wins and losses.

If Illinois can get Mara in early foul trouble, or draw a few late calls and force him to sit down the stretch, it could open up driving lanes for Keaton Wagler and others or create rebounding advantages for the Illini.

3. Late-game execution

Of Illinois' six losses, three came in overtime and two were decided by four points or fewer. The outlier is a 74-61 loss to No. 5 UConn at New York's Madison Square Garden. So if there's a way to nitpick the nation's 10th-ranked team, late-game execution has to be on the list.

On Saturday at UCLA, the Illini let Donovan Dent dribble the length of the floor without much resistance and score the game-winning layup at the buzzer.

Against Wisconsin, Wagler and David Mirkovic missed key free-throw attempts at the end of regulation and overtime, and the Illini couldn't contain Nick Boyd well enough down the stretch. In the Michigan State loss, it was Jeremy Fears Jr. carving up the Illinois defense late.

The silver lining to all of this is that Illinois is just a handful of plays away from being 27-1, and that's really not that big of a stretch. The flip side is that after so many close losses, it's fair to wonder if late-game execution is a real problem from a coaching or player standpoint, as opposed to a fluky trend.