Why VCU Could Upset Illinois in the NCAA Tournament Round of 32

There are a variety of reasons to believe Illinois should have its way with VCU in the Round of 32 on Saturday night (6:50 p.m. CT, CBS) – and all are inherently valid. The Illini are, in fact, more talented, more battle-tested, bigger and stronger – which will be a huge problem for VCU on the glass, in particular. Simply put, Illinois is the better team.

But the Rams have weapons in their arsenal – weapons that can prove to be fatal for this Illini club. Here’s why VCU is more than capable of taking down Illinois:

Why VCU can shock Illinois in the Round of 32

Illinois Fighting Illini head coach Brad Underwood yells down court Thursday, March 19, 2026, during the NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament first round game against the Penn Quakers at Bon Secours Wellness Arena in Greenville, South Carolina. | Alex Martin/Greenville News / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Elite guard play

The Illini still have yet to discover a consistent guard stopper – a defender who can shut down a dynamic opposing creator. Veteran guard Kylan Boswell was spectacular defensively in the win over Penn, but that performance came against 6-foot-9 TJ Power. (Interestingly, Boswell thrives against bigger offensive players.)

In horrible news for Illinois, which must still be reeling from the 69 points Wisconsin’s backcourt pairing of Nick Boyd and John Blackwell poured all over it in last week's Big Ten Tournament, VCU has not just two, not three, but four high-level guards (albeit none in the Boyd/Blackwell tier).

The headliner is sophomore Terrence Hill Jr., who comes off the bench but leads the team in scoring at 14.9 points per game. He hung 34 on North Carolina in the opening round – hitting seven triples in the process – and he can score in a variety of ways.

Fellow guards Jadrian Tracey, Nyk Lewis and Brandon Jennings each average eight or more points, as well. In other words, Illinois needs to figure out its defensive problem now – or the return trip to Champaign won’t just be a pit stop before Houston.

Three-point line defense

Mar 19, 2026; Greenville, SC, USA; VCU Rams guard Terrence Hill Jr. (6) celebrates after defeating the North Carolina Tar Heels in overtime of a first round game of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at Bon Secours Wellness Arena. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-Imagn Images | Bob Donnan-Imagn Images

A sample size of one says nothing about a team’s ability to guard the three-point line – there is simply too much randomness in basketball on any given night. But 35 games is indicative of a squad’s knack for defending beyond the arc.

And VCU has been quite successful in that regard this season. The Rams allow opponents to get up just 20.7 threes per game while yielding just a 32.9 shooting percentage from that distance. Illinois loves firing from deep, and has been relatively efficient this year (11.0 per game on 34.9 percent shooting).

If VCU – which just held UNC to an 8-for-29 night from three (27.6 percent) – can sustain its defensive excellence at the three-point line, it may be a long night for Illinois.

Late-game execution

In games decided by five or less, VCU is 4-2. As for the Illini, they're just 1-6. Again, with small sample sizes, luck (or lack thereof) is often a factor. But with a disparity that wide, and with enough games under each squad's belt, it’s only fair to give the Rams the nod in terms of crunch-time performance.

If they can stick around all game – which the Illini often let teams do – who is to say how the final five minutes may unfold? Toss VCU’s gifted guards into the equation, and a scoring margin within single digits in the late stage may be yet another win waiting to slip through Illinois’ hands.

Bonus: Comeback ability

VCU dug itself out of a 19-point hole against North Carolina on Thursday before clawing back to force overtime – and then prevailing in that frame. Sound familiar, Illinois fans?

That fits the exact bill for three of the Illini’s past nine games – all losses. Against Wisconsin (twice) and at UCLA, Illinois held double-digit leads before going into overtime and getting knocked off.

With the Illini’s offensive firepower and penchant for going on runs, it’s practically a guarantee that Brad Underwood’s outfit will hold a double-digit lead at some point. But Illinois also squandering it feels nearly as inevitable.

Regardless of the disparity on the scoreboard at any juncture of the contest, the Illini will remain on “upset” watch all the way until the clock hits double zeroes.