Evan Miyakawa Projections Rate Illinois Basketball Far Higher Than Experts Do

Preseason college basketball projections are starting to trickle in, and although most of the experts seem to more or less agree on a few things – St. John's is phenomenally talented, BYU is suddenly a player, and Purdue is the favorite in the Big Ten (and perhaps everywhere) – the early returns on Illinois are scattered.

For instance, as of July, USA Today ranked the Illini at No. 23. As of early last month, ESPN had them at No. 16. Back in May, Sports Illustrated – shout out! – put the Illini at No. 15. To keep it simple, you could say most of the pundits figure Illinois for a top-25 team – but only just. A contender? The majority of prognosticators will need to see more from the Illini to be convinced.

Evan Miyakawa – or at least his college basketball metrics model at EvanMiya.com – isn't among them. On Thursday, Miyakawa released his CBB preseason projections, which slot Illinois as the No. 9 team in the nation.

CBB preseason projections are live at https://t.co/cegyfz96ax!

You'll find:
🏀 Team and player projections
💪 MVP and Most Indispensable player rankings
📈 Roster strength rankings, player skill grades, and much more

Here are the top 10 teams and players ⬇️ pic.twitter.com/mZuSytyFXu
— Evan Miyakawa (@EvanMiya) September 11, 2025

A quick explainer, from Miyakawa's site: "We assess the strength of each team by calculating offensive and defensive ratings that reflect the team’s offensive and defensive efficiency, while accounting for other factors, such as game pace and opponent strength."

That doesn't sound all that different from most other projections, though this description reveals a bit more about how Miyakawa's model arrives at its results: "If a team is ranked number one, it is because they are predicted to beat every other team in the country in a theoretical matchup based on using team-specific contextual variables to determine likely head-to-head game winners."

This means, according to EvanMiya.com projections, that only Purdue and Michigan among Big Ten opponents should be expected to beat Illinois in a theoretical head-to-head matchup. On the one hand ... meh. The Illini aren't playing for third place in the Big Ten or just an appearance in the NCAA Tournament Elite Eight this season. Serious, industrial-grade hardware is the goal.

On the other hand, No. 9 is a notable step up from last season and, given the fickle realities of the game, just a ballpark of Illinois' potential. There's simply no accounting for health and in-season development and plain old dumb luck. The experts seem to be wary of another nearly new Illini roster and the uncertainty that comes with several unfamiliar international prospects, which may explain their ranking Illinois toward the bottom of the top 25. But Miyakawa's interesting, evidence-based take offers encouragement that the Illini may be a sleeper contender in 2025-26.

Dreaming of our favorite place pic.twitter.com/E7KNQ2qAic
— Illinois Men's Basketball (@IlliniMBB) July 31, 2025