Has Bret Bielema's NFL Experience Given Illinois an Edge in One-Score Games?

In the latest episode of his weekly Wednesday radio show, Illinois coach Bret Bielema offered some interesting insight into real-time football game strategy – and also unwittingly proved to all the couch coaches out there how difficult the real thing can be.

Looking back to a critical sequence in Illinois' 34-32 win over USC on Saturday in Champaign, Bielema recalled his thought process when running back Kaden Feagin got a bad spot on a third-and-4 run with 35 seconds on the game clock, leaving the Illini down by 1 and Bielema with a critical, high-pressure decision to make.

"In that game, the way it kind of played out, Kaden rolled ahead. I thought he got a first down, and they ruled it short, right?" Bielema said. "So in that quick amount of time, I was really caught in a dilemma. Because we could challenge, but if I challenge and lose it, then that stops the clock, and then I'm going to kick the field goal. Even if we make it, I'm going to turn the ball back over to them with 30, 35 seconds. And I really didn't want to do that. So when the official spotted it short, I didn't have a choice other than to just let [the clock] go down to four seconds. So, kind of a good teachable moment."

Follow all that? Is it rocket science? Of course not. But in that moment, with Illinois' season arguably on the line – the Illini at risk of following up a 63-10 trashing in Bloomington with a home loss in a game they had led the Trojans by two touchdowns – Bielema had to shut out every intrusive thought, instantly dial up every pertinent data point of game information, consider every possible permutation of outcomes and then coolly make the right call. It ain't the same on XBox, brother.

Did the NFL help prep Bielema for close games?

While working under Bill Belichick as a consultant and defensive line coach with the New England Patriots, Bielema put in some research and found that a surprising number of NFL games are decided by one score. That's up for some interpretation – is the extra point part of the calculus? What about two-point conversions? – but the most conservative estimations put the number at about half of NFL games being decided by a score. And a somewhat recent analysis from FiveThirtyEight suggests that the figure is increasing. The "motivator of men" sterotype doesn't get you very far in today's game. Can you manage the clock? Down-and-distance? Personnel matchings? Play-calling? A staff? Oh, and can you juggle them all at once?

The college game is still a bit more wide open, but Big Ten play tends to be quite competitive. Bielema joked that his wife gives him a hard time about keeping the games too close, and he says, "that's just the way they've played out." But he also notes – correctly – that Illinois is 11-4 in one-score games since the start of the 2023 season (and 6-1 since the start of 2024). He references and prioritizes situational practice reps as much as any college coach you'll find, so those crunch-time moments are clearly something he gives more than a little advance thought to.

Of the 388 NFL games this year, 307 have been decided by 8 points or less. So, almost 80 percent of games come down to one score. Solid product.
— Alec Lewis (@alec_lewis) December 2, 2024

One more piece of the puzzle

Tight, last-second scenarios are always a little less nerve-fraying with the right quarterback on the roster. Luke Altmyer is nothing if not that guy. He leads all active NCAA quarterbacks with eight career game-winning drives, and Bielema gives him the lion's share of the credit for Illinois' success in those dry-mouth moments at the end of close games.

Illinois quarterback Luke Altmye — Sep 27, 2025; Champaign, Illinois, USA; Illinois Fighting Illini quarterback Luke Altmyer (9) scores a touchdown against the Southern California Trojans during the first half at Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Ron Johnson-Imagn Images | Ron Johnson-Imagn Images

"I think the confidence he has in the huddle in those moments, and the way that the huddle has confidence in him, is really second to none," Bielema said. "[Co-quarterbacks coach] Art [Sitkowski] and I both sat in a meeting with him on Friday afternoon where we did a little two-minute organization call sheet, and he just sounds so confident. And then, the way it played out [against USC], we really didn't even need to have him throw it.

"So I just think our guys put themselves in a good position to be successful and play."

With a little help, undoubtedly, from their coach.