ESPN's FPI Reveals Favorite for Illinois vs. Tennessee in Music City Bowl

After a full month off from formal competition, Illinois football (8-4) is set to return to the spotlight for a Music City Bowl showdown against Tennessee (8-4) on Tuesday (4:30 p.m. CT, ESPN) at Nissan Stadium in Nashville.

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— Illinois Football (@IlliniFootball) December 27, 2025

For the first time in program history, the Illini have an opportunity to string together back-to-back seasons of nine or more wins. And to pull it off, they will have to knock off an SEC foe in postseason action for the second straight year. What are their chances?

ESPN's analytics predict Illinois-Tennessee

Tennessee football coach Josh Heupel during the NCAA college football game against Vanderbilt on Nov. 29, 2025, in Knoxville, Tennessee. | Angelina Alcantar/News Sentinel / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

According to ESPN’s analytics, the Illini have more than an outside shot to make more program history – but it isn't likely. The Football Power Index (FPI) gives Tennessee a 67.2 percent chance of winning the contest. In turn, Illinois has a 32.8 percent chance of securing its ninth victory of the 2025 campaign.

How the resumes of Illinois and Tennessee stack up

Both the Illini and Volunteers suffered the blemishes on their records – four apiece – in conference play. Illinois fell to the current top two seeds in the College Football Playoff – No. 1 Indiana and No. 2 Ohio State – while also dropping a tough matchup at Washington and sinking to their low-water mark in an anti-masterpiece: a defeat against 4-8 Wisconsin in Madison.

Tennessee, meanwhile, dropped games against three CFP teams (Georgia, Alabama and Oklahoma), but it notably finished within one score in two of those three contests. The other misstep came against Vanderbilt in the season finale, a nightmare 45-24 loss in Knoxville.

Illinois’ win over No. 16 USC is the only triumph either squad has over an opponent that is currently ranked in the AP top 25. Tennessee’s best win is over 4-8 Florida, but, as previously mentioned, the Volunteers were clearly more competitive against top-notch foes than the Illini were (falling by a combined 71 points to the Hoosiers and Buckeyes).

Is ESPN’s assessment fair?

Illinois Fighting Illini head coach Bret Bielema walks across the field as the team arrives prior to the NCAA football game against the Ohio State Buckeyes at Gies Memorial Stadium in Champaign on Oct. 11, 2025. | Adam Cairns/Columbus Dispatch / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

At first glance, a prediction that equates to Tennessee beating Illinois approximately two out of every three times is seemingly spot-on. The Volunteers’ best attribute is their offense – which should have its way with the porous Illini defense. And their subpar defense has one redeemable trait: creating pressure on opposing quarterbacks (3.0 sacks per game, tied for seventh in the country), which happens to be kryptonite for the Illinois offense.

The matchup seems all but perfect for Tennessee. But given that the Vols will be down cornerbacks Jermod McCoy and Colton Hood, along with edge rusher Joshua Josephs and Arion Carter – not to mention wide receiver Chris Brazzell on the other side of the ball – the Vols aren’t going into this contest at their best.

Still, despite being less than 100 percent, Tennessee should be the favorite on Tuesday (even if we at Illinois on SI would set the odds at closer to 60/40).