ESPN's Football Power Index Picks a Heavy Favorite for Illinois at Indiana

Through three weeks of the college football season, No. 9 Illinois (3-0) and No. 19 Indiana (3-0) are both perfect. As for ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) analytics, well, not so much.

Projecting the outcome of the Hoosiers’ non-conference slate was hardly a Herculean task for any advanced metrics formula (or any college football fan), considering Curt Cignetti’s club has yet to face off against a high-major foe.

As for the Illini, two of their three outings were also walks in the park (Western Illinois and Western Michigan), both for them and predictive metrics. But FPI did flub one of the six matchups thus far between the Illini and Hoosiers: Illinois’ win at Duke.

Analytics miss on Illinois-Duke

Sep 6, 2025; Durham, North Carolina, USA; Illinois Fighting Illini quarterback Luke Altmyer (9) runs during the first quarter against the Duke Blue Devils at Wallace Wade Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Zachary Taft-Imagn Images | Zachary Taft-Imagn Images

Despite the Illini entering their Week 2 matchup against the Blue Devils (unranked) as the No. 12 team in the country, ESPN’s FPI actually gave Duke (50.6 percent of winning) a slight edge. Sure, the game was in Durham, but let’s be real: Wade Wallace Stadium is a far cry from The Big House.

Nevertheless, ESPN clearly expected Duke’s home-field advantage to factor in enough to make up for anything the Blue Devils might have lacked on the field. Yet the numbers were wildly off, as Bret Bielema’s squad rolled past Duke, 45-19.

Luke Altmyer finds Justin Bowick to extend the @IlliniFootball lead 😤

pic.twitter.com/SMJV4ZbgcZ
— Always College Football (@AlwaysCFB) September 6, 2025

Metrics low on Illinois’ chances at Indiana

Sep 6, 2025; Durham, North Carolina, USA; Illinois Fighting Illini head coach Bret Bielema during the third quarter against the Duke Blue Devils at Wallace Wade Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Zachary Taft-Imagn Images | Zachary Taft-Imagn Images

Two weeks later, the Illini are once again on the wrong side of ESPN's numbers – and this time, even more so. FPI gives Illinois just a 37.2 percent chance of taking down Indiana, meaning the Hoosiers are fairly heavy favorites at 62.8 percent.

A fair evaluation?

Sep 12, 2025; Bloomington, Indiana, USA; Indiana Hoosiers head coach Curt Cignetti watches his team warm up prior to the game against the Indiana State Sycamores at Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Robert Goddin-Imagn Images | Robert Goddin-Imagn Images

On the one hand, Indiana – which announced a sellout of this game back in late July – certainly has a bigger and more active football fan base than, say, Duke's, which could make the Hoosiers' home-field advantage a more influential factor in Week 4.

More importantly, the Hoosiers have an uber-talented quarterback in Fernando Mendoza – similar to Duke’s Darian Mensah. Mendoza also has the high-major experience (he was a two-year starter at Cal before transferring in the offseason) to complement his next-level abilities and several dangerous receivers.

What a way to open the game. @qb_fernando | @CountryMark Drive of the Game pic.twitter.com/0YOaXgqEsL
— Indiana Football (@IndianaFootball) September 14, 2025

Cignetti is one of the top minds in college football. Last year, his Indiana defense allowed just 15.6 points per game (second fewest in the Big Ten), and the Hoosiers have seemingly picked up where they left off, giving up 7.7 points per game in 2025 – albeit against that aforementioned lower-level competition.

Stingy on defense and explosive on offense, Indiana has all the tools to stave off Illinois at home – but the Illini also have the pieces to pull off the upset (or at least what FPI characterizes it to be).

Last year, in Indiana’s double-digit loss to Ohio State, the Hoosiers gave up five sacks. Notably, Mendoza has been sacked only once so far this season. But the Illini pass rush is one of the most potent in the nation, and may pose a handful of problems for the Hoosiers and Mendoza, creating pressure he hasn’t felt since he was a Golden Bear.

At the end of the day, Indiana may still have a slight upper hand heading into the contest, but a projection that expects the Hoosiers to, theoretically, win roughly two out of three games against Illinois (62.8 percent chance of victory), even under the circumstances, is a stretch.